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Serie A
Referee: Marco Di Bello
Carpi
T T U
0–1
Full-time
Fiorentina
S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Carpi Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
100%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
100%
33%
Average goals
4,7
2,3
Scored
1,7
1,3
Conceded
3,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,3
This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
100%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
100%
33%
Average goals
4,7
2,3
Scored
1,7
1,3
Conceded
3,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

33% Possession 67%
12 Shots 8
3 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 3
5 Offside 4
0 Free kicks against 0
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Carpi 19. · Fiorentina 8. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 4 4 0 0 +4 12
2 Torino 4 3 1 0 +5 10
3 Roma 4 2 2 0 +3 8
4 Sassuolo 4 2 2 0 +2 8
5 Chievo 4 2 1 1 +5 7
6 Sampdoria 4 2 1 1 +3 7
7 Palermo 4 2 1 1 +1 7
8 Fiorentina 3 2 0 1 +1 6
9 Milan 4 2 0 2 -1 6
10 Lazio 3 2 0 1 -1 6
11 Atalanta 4 1 2 1 +1 5
12 Juventus 4 1 1 2 +0 4
13 Empoli 4 1 1 2 -2 4
14 Verona 4 0 3 1 -2 3
15 Genoa 4 1 0 3 -2 3
16 Bologna 4 1 0 3 -3 3
17 Udinese 4 1 0 3 -3 3
18 Napoli 3 0 2 1 -1 2
19 Carpi 3 0 1 2 -4 1
20 Frosinone 4 0 0 4 -6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Carpi Fiorentina
Lorenzo Lollo 🟨
19′
35′
⚽ K. Babacar 0–1
41′
🟨 Manuel Pasqual
Matteo Fedele 🟨
44′
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 Marcos Alonso
↦ M. Pasqual
Isaac Cofie 🟨
48′
A. Di Gaudio 🔁
↦ I. Cofie
56′
58′
🔁 N. Kalinić
↦ G. Rossi
63′
🟨 Marcos Alonso
68′
🟨 Ciprian Tătărușanu
69′
🟨 Mario Suárez
J. Mbakogu 🔁
↦ Ryder Matos
71′
A. Lazzari 🔁
↦ G. Letizia
76′
76′
🔁 Joan Verdú
↦ F. Bernardeschi
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Carpi

22 F. Benussi G
5 C. Zaccardo D
21 S. Romagnoli D
3 G. Letizia D
18 I. Bubnjić
34 Gabriel Silva D
4 I. Cofie M
20 L. Lollo M
58 M. Fedele M
12 M. Borriello F
7 Ryder Matos F
Bench (12)
11 A. Di Gaudio
99 J. Mbakogu
10 A. Lazzari
1 Ž. Brkić
6 R. Gagliolo
8 R. Bianco
14 F. Gino
15 K. Lasagna
19 L. Pasciuti
27 V. Belec
29 Raphael Martinho
94 G. Iñíguez

Fiorentina

12 C. Tătăruşanu G
2 G. Rodríguez D
23 M. Pasqual
32 F. Roncaglia D
4 N. Tomović D
3 Gilberto Junior D
18 Mario Suárez M
20 Borja Valero M
22 G. Rossi F
30 K. Babacar F
10 F. Bernardeschi M
Bench (8)
28 Marcos Alonso
9 N. Kalinić
21 Joan Verdú
11 A. Rebić
13 D. Astori
14 M. Fernández
24 L. Lezzerini
33 L. Sepe

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Marco Di Bello · 77 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,8 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.