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La Liga
Referee: Carlos Clos Gomez
Villarreal
U S S
3–1
Full-time
Ath Bilbao
T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Ath Bilbao
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
100%
33%
Average goals
3,3
2,3
Scored
2,3
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,3
-0,3
This season — La Liga · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
100%
33%
Average goals
3,3
2,3
Scored
2,3
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,3
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%
14 Shots 10
7 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
9 Corners 4
6 Offside 0
0 Free kicks against 0
4 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Villarreal 5. · Ath Bilbao 12. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 4 3 1 0 +12 10
2 Celta 4 3 1 0 +5 10
3 Ath Madrid 4 3 0 1 +5 9
4 Barcelona 3 3 0 0 +3 9
5 Villarreal 3 2 1 0 +4 7
6 Eibar 4 2 1 1 +2 7
7 Valencia 4 1 3 0 +1 6
8 Espanol 4 2 0 2 -6 6
9 La Coruna 4 1 2 1 +1 5
10 Sp Gijon 4 1 2 1 +0 5
11 Betis 4 1 2 1 -4 5
12 Ath Bilbao 3 1 0 2 -1 3
13 Getafe 4 1 0 3 -3 3
14 Granada 4 1 0 3 -4 3
15 Las Palmas 3 0 2 1 -1 2
16 Levante 3 0 2 1 -1 2
17 Sociedad 4 0 2 2 -2 2
18 Malaga 4 0 2 2 -2 2
19 Sevilla 4 0 2 2 -4 2
20 Vallecano 3 0 1 2 -5 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Villarreal Ath Bilbao
11′
🟨 Aymeric Laporte
Léo Baptistão 🔁
↦ C. Bakambu
15′
Bruno Soriano 🟨
24′
1–0 Bruno ⚽
43′
Léo Baptistão 🟨
45′
Half-time 1–0
Adrián 🔁
↦ Soldado
46′
49′
🟨 Carlos Gurpegi
Matías Nahuel 🟨
50′
Eric Bailly 🟨
60′
62′
🔁 Aduriz
↦ Kike Sola
62′
🔁 Raúl García
↦ Eraso
64′
🟨 Aritz Aduriz
2–0 Mario Gaspar ⚽
Tomás Pina
67′
68′
🔁 Beñat
↦ Mikel Rico
Denis Suárez 🔁
↦ N. Leiva
74′
3–0 Léo Baptistão ⚽
Adrián
80′
88′
🟨 Óscar de Marcos
92′
⚽ Aduriz 3–1
San José
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Villarreal

13 A. Areola G
2 Mario Gaspar D
11 Jaume Costa D
6 Víctor Ruíz D
24 E. Bailly D
21 Bruno M
4 Tomás Pina M
19 Samu Castillejo M
9 Soldado F
17 C. Bakambu F
26 N. Leiva M
Bench (7)
10 Léo Baptistão
20 Adrián
18 Denis Suárez
8 J. dos Santos
14 Trigueros
22 A. Rukavina
25 M. Barbosa

Ath Bilbao

1 Iraizoz G
6 San José M
24 Balenziaga D
4 A. Laporte D
18 Gurpegi M
10 De Marcos D
17 Mikel Rico M
5 Eraso M
23 Ager Aketxe M
9 Kike Sola F
25 Sabin F
Bench (7)
20 Aduriz
22 Raúl García
7 Beñat
13 Iago Herrerín
14 Susaeta
16 Etxeita
30 Lekue

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Carlos Clos Gomez · 41 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
16,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.