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Bundesliga

Referee: Deniz Aytekin

Dortmund

S S S S

3–0

Full-time

Leverkusen

S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

4,5

2,0

Scored

3,8

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+3,0

-0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

4,5

2,0

Scored

3,8

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+3,0

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

22 Shots 8

10 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

3 Corners 1

1 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 2. · Leverkusen 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	5	0	0	+13	15
2	Dortmund	4	4	0	0	+12	12
3	Wolfsburg	5	3	2	0	+6	11
4	Schalke 04	5	3	1	1	+2	10
5	FC Koln	5	3	1	1	+0	10
6	FC Ingolstadt 04	5	3	1	1	-1	10
7	Mainz	5	3	0	2	+4	9
8	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	2	1	+6	8
9	Werder Bremen	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Hamburg	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	Hertha	5	2	1	2	-2	7
12	Darmstadt	5	1	3	1	-2	6
13	Leverkusen	4	2	0	2	-2	6
14	Augsburg	4	0	1	3	-3	1
15	Hoffenheim	5	0	1	4	-6	1
16	Hannover	4	0	1	3	-6	1
17	Stuttgart	5	0	0	5	-8	0
18	M'gladbach	5	0	0	5	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Wolfsburg	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	FC Koln	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Mainz	3	2	0	1	+4	6
6	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+4	4
7	Hertha	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Schalke 04	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Hamburg	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Werder Bremen	3	1	0	2	-3	3
12	Darmstadt	3	0	2	1	-3	2
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	2	0	1	1	-4	1
14	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-2	0
15	Hannover	2	0	0	2	-3	0
16	Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Stuttgart	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	FC Ingolstadt 04	3	3	0	0	+3	9
2	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Schalke 04	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	1	1	+2	4
6	Werder Bremen	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Darmstadt	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Mainz	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	FC Koln	2	1	0	1	-2	3
10	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Hamburg	3	1	0	2	-3	3
12	Hertha	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Wolfsburg	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Augsburg	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Hoffenheim	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Hannover	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Stuttgart	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	M'gladbach	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.