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Ligue 1

Referee: Mikael Lesage

Bordeaux

T U U S U

1–1

Full-time

Toulouse

S T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bordeaux Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

40%

60%

Both score Ø 70%

60%

80%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,4

This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

40%

60%

Both score Ø 70%

60%

80%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

60% Possession 40%

18 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Bordeaux 15. · Toulouse 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	4	2	0	+7	14
2	Rennes	6	4	1	1	+5	13
3	Caen	6	4	0	2	+0	12
4	Reims	6	3	2	1	+4	11
5	Angers	6	3	2	1	+3	11
6	St Etienne	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	Guingamp	6	3	0	3	-1	9
8	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+4	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	Monaco	5	2	2	1	-1	8
11	Lille	6	1	4	1	+0	7
12	Bastia	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Nantes	5	2	1	2	-2	7
14	Marseille	5	2	0	3	+5	6
15	Bordeaux	5	1	3	1	+1	6
16	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-2	5
17	Lorient	5	1	2	2	-2	5
18	Troyes	6	0	3	3	-9	3
19	Montpellier	6	0	1	5	-6	1
20	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	6	0	1	5	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reims	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Rennes	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Marseille	3	2	0	1	+8	6
4	Bastia	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Guingamp	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Nantes	3	2	0	1	+0	6
7	Caen	3	2	0	1	-2	6
8	Toulouse	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Angers	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Lorient	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	St Etienne	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Lille	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Bordeaux	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Nice	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Troyes	4	0	3	1	-2	3
17	Lyon	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Monaco	2	0	1	1	-3	1
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Montpellier	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Caen	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Angers	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Rennes	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	St Etienne	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Nice	3	1	2	0	+2	5
9	Reims	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Bordeaux	3	0	3	0	+0	3
11	Lille	3	0	3	0	+0	3
12	Guingamp	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Montpellier	3	0	1	2	-2	1
14	Nantes	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Lorient	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Bastia	3	0	1	2	-4	1
17	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Toulouse	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Troyes	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.