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Ligue 1
Referee: Ruddy Buquet
Marseille
T T S T S
1–1
Full-time
Lyon
U S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Lyon
Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 40%
40%
40%
Points per game
1,2
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
40%
40%
Both score Ø 20%
20%
20%
Average goals
3,0
1,6
Scored
2,0
1,2
Conceded
1,0
0,4
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,8
This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 40%
40%
40%
Points per game
1,2
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
40%
40%
Both score Ø 20%
20%
20%
Average goals
3,0
1,6
Scored
2,0
1,2
Conceded
1,0
0,4
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%
14 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
1 Corners 5
2 Offside 3
0 Free kicks against 0
4 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Marseille 16. · Lyon 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 6 4 2 0 +7 14
2 Rennes 6 4 1 1 +5 13
3 St Etienne 6 4 1 1 +4 13
4 Caen 6 4 0 2 +0 12
5 Reims 6 3 2 1 +4 11
6 Angers 6 3 2 1 +3 11
7 Guingamp 6 3 0 3 -1 9
8 Lyon 5 2 2 1 +4 8
9 Nice 6 2 2 2 +1 8
10 Lorient 6 2 2 2 -1 8
11 Monaco 6 2 2 2 -2 8
12 Bordeaux 6 1 4 1 +1 7
13 Lille 6 1 4 1 +0 7
14 Bastia 6 2 1 3 -2 7
15 Nantes 6 2 1 3 -4 7
16 Marseille 5 2 0 3 +5 6
17 Toulouse 6 1 3 2 -2 6
18 Troyes 6 0 3 3 -9 3
19 Montpellier 6 0 1 5 -6 1
20 Gazelec FC Ajaccio 6 0 1 5 -7 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.