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La Liga

Referee: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos

Alaves

S S T S U

1–0

Full-time

Villarreal

T T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,8

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,5

4,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,81 xG 1,40

24% Possession 76%

9 Shots 19

2 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 6

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 9

5 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 5. · Villarreal 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+7	+7.7	6
2	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+4	+4.2	6
3	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.5	6
4	Betis	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.5	6
5	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.3	4
6	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+2	-2.0	4
7	Osasuna	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.9	4
8	Santander	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.0	4
9	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.4	3
10	Getafe	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.8	3
11	Villarreal	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.6	2
12	La Coruna	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.7	2
13	Vallecano	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.9	1
14	Celta	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.4	1
15	Valencia	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.3	1
16	Malaga	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.1	1
17	Levante	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.7	1
18	Elche	3	0	1	2	-6	-3.5	1
19	Ath Bilbao	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.1	0
20	Sociedad	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+2	-2.0	4
2	Santander	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.9	4
3	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
4	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
5	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.4	3
6	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+2	+4.0	3
7	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
8	Betis	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
9	Getafe	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
10	Vallecano	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.6	1
11	La Coruna	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
12	Malaga	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
13	Osasuna	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
14	Valencia	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.3	1
15	Celta	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.5	0
16	Ath Bilbao	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0
17	Elche	1	0	0	1	-5	-3.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+5	+3.7	3
2	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.8	3
3	Osasuna	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.5	3
4	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
5	Betis	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
6	Villarreal	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.6	2
7	Alaves	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
8	La Coruna	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
9	Celta	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
10	Elche	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
11	Levante	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.7	1
12	Vallecano	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
13	Santander	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
14	Ath Bilbao	1	0	0	1	-2	-4.0	0
15	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
16	Getafe	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0
17	Sociedad	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.