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La Liga
Referee: M Busquets
Sevilla
T S S T U
1–0
Full-time
Valencia
S U T T T
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sevilla Valencia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,5
3,5
Scored
1,2
1,3
Conceded
1,3
2,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
1,8
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
75%
50%
Both score Ø 63%
100%
25%
Average goals
3,3
2,5
Scored
1,8
0,3
Conceded
1,5
2,3
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%
13 Shots 3
4 Shots on target 0
4 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 4
2 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sevilla 6. · Valencia 20.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 4 4 0 0 +15 +9.4 12
2 Alaves 4 3 1 0 +7 +2.7 10
3 Real Madrid 4 3 0 1 +7 +6.1 9
4 Betis 4 3 0 1 +0 -1.4 9
5 La Coruna 4 2 2 0 +3 -1.7 8
6 Sevilla 4 2 1 1 +1 -0.6 7
7 Ath Madrid 4 2 1 1 +1 -2.0 7
8 Osasuna 4 2 1 1 -1 +2.9 7
9 Sociedad 5 2 1 2 -2 -1.4 7
10 Ath Bilbao 4 2 0 2 +1 -1.1 6
11 Levante 4 1 2 1 +0 +0.2 5
12 Espanol 4 1 1 2 +1 -1.4 4
13 Santander 4 1 1 2 -1 +2.0 4
14 Vallecano 4 1 1 2 -3 -3.6 4
15 Getafe 4 1 1 2 -3 -3.1 4
16 Celta 5 0 3 2 -3 -4.0 3
17 Villarreal 4 0 2 2 -2 +2.2 2
18 Malaga 4 0 2 2 -6 -1.9 2
19 Elche 4 0 1 3 -7 -3.5 1
20 Valencia 4 0 1 3 -8 +0.3 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sevilla Valencia
24′
🔁 Iker Córdoba
↦ César Tárrega Requeni
27′
🟨 Ryunosuke Sato
Half-time 0–0
62′
🔁 Pablo Maffeo
↦ Arnau Martínez López
62′
🔁 Harvey Elliott
↦ Ryunosuke Sato
Robbie Ure 🔁
↦ Isaac Romero
63′
Chidera Ejuke 🔁
↦ Miguel Sierra
63′
Chidera Ejuke 🟨
67′
Giorgi Kochorashvili 🔁
↦ Youssouf Fofana
71′
1–0 Juan Antonio Iglesias Sánchez
Giorgi Kochorashvili
81′
83′
🔁 Hugo Duro
↦ Javi Guerra
83′
🔁 Jesús Vázquez
↦ José Gayà
Jon Guridi 🔁
↦ Lucas Stassin
83′
Julio Diaz 🔁
↦ Felix Correia
83′
88′
🟨 Pablo Maffeo
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Sevilla

4-4-2
1 O. Vlachodimos G
2 Juan Iglesias D
5 Andrés Castrín D
4 Kike Salas D
17 G. Suazo D
30 M. Sierra M
6 L. Agoumé M
24 Y. Fofana M
20 Félix Correia M
19 L. Stassin F
16 Isaac F
Bench (12)
22 José Ángel Carmona
14 Manu Bueno
3 Julio Díaz del Romo
21 C. Ejuke
10 Peque Fernández
7 Alfon González
13 Fran González
18 Jon Guridi
8 G. Kochorashvili
34 Iker Ortín Muñoz
9 R. Ure
23 Marcão

Coach: Luis García

Valencia

4-4-2
1 S. Dimitrievski G
22 Arnau Martínez D
18 Pepelu D
5 César Tárrega D
14 José Gayà D
27 David Otorbi M
15 A. Dieng M
23 F. Ugrinic M
39 R. Sato M
8 Javi Guerra F
7 A. Danjuma F
Bench (12)
36 Iker Córdoba
9 Hugo Duro
38 Jaume Durá
10 H. Elliott
24 Pablo Maffeo
33 Aaron Mayol
29 Alex Panach
19 Dani Raba
21 Jesús Vázquez
12 J. de Haas
25 K. van Oevelen
37 Aimar Blázquez

Coach: Carlos Corberán

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,96
U
3,31
B
4,02
Over/under goals
O1,5
1,40
U1,5 ✓
2,77
O2,5
2,25
U2,5 ✓
1,60
O3,5
4,15
U3,5 ✓
1,22
Both teams to score
BLS ja
2,00
BLS nei ✓
1,75

Referee

M Busquets · 15 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,36 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.