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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

Casa Pia

T S T S T

3–4

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

U S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 54%

42%

65%

Points per game

1,5

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

38%

69%

Both score Ø 37%

35%

38%

Average goals

1,9

2,9

Scored

0,9

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

25% Possession 75%

8 Shots 20

5 Shots on target 12

3 Blocked shots 6

8 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 18

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 0

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Casa Pia 8. · Sp Lisbon 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	27	23	2	2	+52	71
2	Porto	27	20	4	3	+40	64
3	Sp Braga	27	20	2	5	+36	62
4	Sp Lisbon	26	17	3	6	+29	54
5	Arouca	27	12	8	7	-1	44
6	Guimaraes	27	12	5	10	-5	41
7	Vizela	27	11	5	11	+3	38
8	Casa Pia	26	11	5	10	-4	38
9	Famalicao	27	11	3	13	-6	36
10	Rio Ave	27	9	7	11	-4	34
11	Boavista	27	9	6	12	-13	33
12	Chaves	26	8	8	10	-6	32
13	Gil Vicente	26	8	6	12	-6	30
14	Portimonense	27	8	3	16	-15	27
15	Estoril	27	7	4	16	-20	25
16	Maritimo	27	5	4	18	-29	19
17	Pacos Ferreira	27	4	5	18	-26	17
18	Santa Clara	27	3	6	18	-25	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	12	1	1	+31	37
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	0	2	+28	33
3	Porto	13	11	0	2	+27	33
4	Sp Braga	13	9	2	2	+20	29
5	Guimaraes	14	8	3	3	+4	27
6	Arouca	14	8	2	4	+4	26
7	Boavista	14	6	5	3	+0	23
8	Rio Ave	13	7	1	5	+4	22
9	Famalicao	13	7	1	5	+3	22
10	Casa Pia	13	6	3	4	+3	21
11	Portimonense	14	5	3	6	-2	18
12	Vizela	13	5	2	6	+1	17
13	Gil Vicente	13	4	5	4	+0	17
14	Chaves	13	3	5	5	-2	14
15	Maritimo	13	4	2	7	-4	14
16	Estoril	13	4	2	7	-10	14
17	Santa Clara	14	2	4	8	-13	10
18	Pacos Ferreira	14	2	2	10	-16	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	11	1	1	+21	34
2	Sp Braga	14	11	0	3	+16	33
3	Porto	14	9	4	1	+13	31
4	Vizela	14	6	3	5	+2	21
5	Sp Lisbon	13	6	3	4	+1	21
6	Chaves	13	5	3	5	-4	18
7	Arouca	13	4	6	3	-5	18
8	Casa Pia	13	5	2	6	-7	17
9	Famalicao	14	4	2	8	-9	14
10	Guimaraes	13	4	2	7	-9	14
11	Gil Vicente	13	4	1	8	-6	13
12	Rio Ave	14	2	6	6	-8	12
13	Estoril	14	3	2	9	-10	11
14	Boavista	13	3	1	9	-13	10
15	Pacos Ferreira	13	2	3	8	-10	9
16	Portimonense	13	3	0	10	-13	9
17	Santa Clara	13	1	2	10	-12	5
18	Maritimo	14	1	2	11	-25	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.