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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Nogueira

Estoril

S U S T T

1–3

Full-time

Moreirense

U U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 38%

31%

44%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

69%

44%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

3,7

2,4

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,67 xG 1,55

67% Possession 33%

9 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 11. · Moreirense 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	14	1	2	+23	+19.3	43
2	Benfica	16	12	3	1	+21	+18.9	39
3	Porto	16	11	2	3	+11	+10.4	35
4	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+17	+11.8	33
5	Guimaraes	16	9	3	4	+8	+1.8	30
6	Moreirense	16	7	5	4	+4	+0.0	26
7	Famalicao	17	5	7	5	-3	-5.3	22
8	Farense	17	6	3	8	+0	-6.6	21
9	Casa Pia	17	5	4	8	-5	-3.9	19
10	Portimonense	17	5	3	9	-18	-9.2	18
11	Estoril	16	5	2	9	+1	-8.9	17
12	Estrela	16	4	5	7	-6	-4.7	17
13	Boavista	16	4	5	7	-8	-7.6	17
14	Arouca	16	4	4	8	-1	-0.5	16
15	Gil Vicente	16	4	3	9	-4	-6.5	15
16	Rio Ave	16	3	6	7	-6	+4.5	15
17	Vizela	16	2	7	7	-8	-3.8	13
18	Chaves	17	3	2	12	-26	-9.7	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	9	0	0	+17	+12.5	27
2	Guimaraes	8	6	0	2	+9	+5.7	18
3	Benfica	7	5	2	0	+11	+10.9	17
4	Porto	7	5	1	1	+5	+10.2	16
5	Gil Vicente	8	4	3	1	+9	-1.6	15
6	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+9	+11.6	14
7	Farense	9	4	2	3	+5	+0.3	14
8	Estoril	7	4	1	2	+12	+1.5	13
9	Rio Ave	9	3	3	3	+0	+4.3	12
10	Famalicao	8	3	3	2	-1	-1.7	12
11	Moreirense	8	3	2	3	+0	+0.3	11
12	Portimonense	8	3	2	3	-3	-3.1	11
13	Boavista	9	2	4	3	-4	-3.9	10
14	Estrela	9	3	1	5	-4	-2.4	10
15	Arouca	9	2	2	5	-4	-1.9	8
16	Chaves	8	2	1	5	-7	-2.1	7
17	Vizela	8	1	3	4	-5	-0.3	6
18	Casa Pia	8	1	2	5	-6	-2.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+10	+8.0	22
2	Sp Braga	8	6	1	1	+8	+0.2	19
3	Porto	9	6	1	2	+6	+0.2	19
4	Sp Lisbon	8	5	1	2	+6	+6.7	16
5	Moreirense	8	4	3	1	+4	-0.3	15
6	Casa Pia	9	4	2	3	+1	-1.6	14
7	Guimaraes	8	3	3	2	-1	-4.0	12
8	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	-2	-3.6	10
9	Arouca	7	2	2	3	+3	+1.4	8
10	Estrela	7	1	4	2	-2	-2.3	7
11	Vizela	8	1	4	3	-3	-3.5	7
12	Boavista	7	2	1	4	-4	-3.7	7
13	Farense	8	2	1	5	-5	-6.9	7
14	Portimonense	9	2	1	6	-15	-6.1	7
15	Estoril	9	1	1	7	-11	-10.4	4
16	Chaves	9	1	1	7	-19	-7.6	4
17	Rio Ave	7	0	3	4	-6	+0.2	3
18	Gil Vicente	8	0	0	8	-13	-4.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.