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Bundesliga

Referee: S Stegemann

Freiburg

S T S T U

3–2

Full-time

Hoffenheim

T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

1,8

3,7

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

0,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 41%

41%

Points per game

1,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

53%

82%

Both score Ø 68%

47%

88%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,2

1,9

Conceded

1,5

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,69 xG 1,45

43% Possession 57%

16 Shots 16

8 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

2 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 7. · Hoffenheim 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	17	14	3	0	+35	+19.6	45
2	Bayern Munich	16	13	2	1	+37	+35.1	41
3	Stuttgart	17	11	1	5	+16	+20.2	34
4	RB Leipzig	17	10	3	4	+20	+16.5	33
5	Dortmund	17	8	6	3	+8	+3.4	30
6	Ein Frankfurt	17	7	6	4	+7	-4.3	27
7	Freiburg	17	7	4	6	-5	+1.6	25
8	Hoffenheim	17	7	3	7	-1	-2.7	24
9	Heidenheim	17	6	3	8	-7	-16.3	21
10	M'gladbach	17	5	5	7	-2	-3.5	20
11	Wolfsburg	17	6	2	9	-7	-4.9	20
12	Augsburg	17	4	6	7	-8	-4.9	18
13	Werder Bremen	17	4	5	8	-7	-7.2	17
14	Bochum	17	3	8	6	-15	-7.6	17
15	Union Berlin	16	4	2	10	-14	-5.9	14
16	Mainz	17	1	8	8	-15	-1.6	11
17	FC Koln	17	2	5	10	-18	-18.0	11
18	Darmstadt	17	2	4	11	-24	-19.4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	9	8	1	0	+23	+16.8	25
2	Bayern Munich	8	7	1	0	+28	+19.9	22
3	Stuttgart	9	7	1	1	+19	+18.3	22
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	2	1	+17	+12.9	20
5	Dortmund	9	5	2	2	+2	+4.4	17
6	Heidenheim	8	5	1	2	+3	-4.4	16
7	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	3	1	+7	+1.9	15
8	Freiburg	8	4	3	1	+4	+7.1	15
9	M'gladbach	9	4	2	3	+3	+1.3	14
10	Werder Bremen	9	4	2	3	+1	-0.8	14
11	Wolfsburg	8	4	1	3	+3	-2.2	13
12	Augsburg	9	3	4	2	+1	-0.9	13
13	Bochum	8	2	5	1	+3	+5.8	11
14	Union Berlin	8	3	1	4	-4	-1.3	10
15	Hoffenheim	8	2	2	4	-2	+1.5	8
16	FC Koln	8	1	3	4	-4	-6.3	6
17	Mainz	8	1	2	5	-7	+1.7	5
18	Darmstadt	9	1	2	6	-9	-4.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	8	6	2	0	+12	+2.8	20
2	Bayern Munich	8	6	1	1	+9	+15.2	19
3	Hoffenheim	9	5	1	3	+1	-4.2	16
4	Dortmund	8	3	4	1	+6	-1.0	13
5	RB Leipzig	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.5	13
6	Ein Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	+0	-6.2	12
7	Stuttgart	8	4	0	4	-3	+1.9	12
8	Freiburg	9	3	1	5	-9	-5.5	10
9	Wolfsburg	9	2	1	6	-10	-2.7	7
10	M'gladbach	8	1	3	4	-5	-4.7	6
11	Mainz	9	0	6	3	-8	-3.3	6
12	Bochum	9	1	3	5	-18	-13.4	6
13	Augsburg	8	1	2	5	-9	-3.9	5
14	Heidenheim	9	1	2	6	-10	-11.9	5
15	FC Koln	9	1	2	6	-14	-11.8	5
16	Darmstadt	8	1	2	5	-15	-14.8	5
17	Union Berlin	8	1	1	6	-10	-4.7	4
18	Werder Bremen	8	0	3	5	-8	-6.4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.