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Eredivisie

Referee: M van den Kerkhof

Nijmegen

S S S U S

1–0

Full-time

Twente

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Twente

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 92%

100%

83%

Average goals

4,3

4,0

Scored

3,2

2,0

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 16/17 matches

Win Ø 48%

31%

65%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 76%

81%

71%

Both score Ø 73%

81%

65%

Average goals

3,8

3,3

Scored

2,0

2,1

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,52 xG 0,52

48% Possession 52%

23 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

6 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nijmegen 8. · Twente 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	17	17	0	0	+52	+40.8	51
2	Feyenoord	17	12	3	2	+34	+34.5	39
3	Twente	17	11	4	2	+16	+12.9	37
4	AZ Alkmaar	17	10	3	4	+20	+11.2	33
5	Ajax	17	8	4	5	+6	+5.1	28
6	Sparta Rotterdam	17	7	4	6	+2	-6.2	25
7	Go Ahead Eagles	16	6	4	6	+2	-7.0	22
8	Nijmegen	16	5	6	5	+3	-13.4	21
9	Excelsior	18	4	8	6	-4	-8.5	20
10	Heerenveen	18	6	2	10	-9	-3.9	20
11	Zwolle	17	5	4	8	-5	-5.5	19
12	For Sittard	17	5	4	8	-13	-1.3	19
13	Almere City	17	5	4	8	-15	-6.7	19
14	Utrecht	17	4	6	7	-9	-10.5	18
15	Heracles	17	5	3	9	-18	-11.7	18
16	Waalwijk	17	4	2	11	-14	-4.5	14
17	Vitesse	17	3	3	11	-25	-13.1	12
18	Volendam	17	3	2	12	-23	-12.3	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+24	+23.5	27
2	Twente	9	7	1	1	+7	+6.3	22
3	Feyenoord	9	6	2	1	+18	+15.9	20
4	AZ Alkmaar	9	6	1	2	+14	+11.2	19
5	For Sittard	9	5	2	2	+4	+7.3	17
6	Go Ahead Eagles	9	5	1	3	+10	+4.6	16
7	Ajax	8	5	1	2	+9	+7.2	16
8	Heerenveen	8	4	1	3	+5	+6.8	13
9	Nijmegen	8	3	2	3	+5	+0.4	11
10	Excelsior	9	2	5	2	+0	+0.6	11
11	Heracles	8	3	1	4	-9	-6.5	10
12	Sparta Rotterdam	8	2	3	3	-3	-0.7	9
13	Zwolle	9	2	2	5	-6	+0.2	8
14	Almere City	8	2	2	4	-7	-2.4	8
15	Utrecht	8	1	4	3	-7	-5.1	7
16	Waalwijk	9	2	1	6	-8	-3.4	7
17	Volendam	8	2	1	5	-9	+0.3	7
18	Vitesse	8	1	3	4	-6	-2.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+28	+17.2	24
2	Feyenoord	8	6	1	1	+16	+18.6	19
3	Sparta Rotterdam	9	5	1	3	+5	-5.5	16
4	Twente	8	4	3	1	+9	+6.5	15
5	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	2	2	+6	-0.0	14
6	Ajax	9	3	3	3	-3	-2.1	12
7	Zwolle	8	3	2	3	+1	-5.7	11
8	Utrecht	9	3	2	4	-2	-5.4	11
9	Almere City	9	3	2	4	-8	-4.3	11
10	Nijmegen	8	2	4	2	-2	-13.8	10
11	Excelsior	9	2	3	4	-4	-9.1	9
12	Heracles	9	2	2	5	-9	-5.2	8
13	Waalwijk	8	2	1	5	-6	-1.0	7
14	Heerenveen	10	2	1	7	-14	-10.7	7
15	Go Ahead Eagles	7	1	3	3	-8	-11.5	6
16	Vitesse	9	2	0	7	-19	-10.4	6
17	Volendam	9	1	1	7	-14	-12.6	4
18	For Sittard	8	0	2	6	-17	-8.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.