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Serie A

Referee: F Maresca

Udinese

U U S T U

2–3

Full-time

Milan

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Udinese Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 38%

10%

65%

Points per game

0,9

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

50%

60%

Both score Ø 55%

60%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,1

1,9

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,55 xG 2,72

30% Possession 70%

11 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 9

6 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Udinese 16. · Milan 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	20	16	3	1	+39	+28.8	51
2	Juventus	20	15	4	1	+20	+18.1	49
3	Milan	20	13	3	4	+17	+4.9	42
4	Fiorentina	20	10	4	6	+8	-1.1	34
5	Atalanta	20	10	3	7	+14	+7.7	33
6	Lazio	20	10	3	7	+4	+4.0	33
7	Roma	21	9	5	7	+9	+8.5	32
8	Bologna	20	8	8	4	+5	+5.4	32
9	Napoli	20	9	4	7	+5	+13.3	31
10	Torino	20	7	7	6	+0	+0.9	28
11	Monza	20	6	7	7	-5	-8.9	25
12	Genoa	20	5	7	8	-4	-3.1	22
13	Lecce	20	4	9	7	-6	-10.2	21
14	Sassuolo	20	5	4	11	-10	-8.1	19
15	Frosinone	20	5	4	11	-14	-10.4	19
16	Udinese	20	2	12	6	-11	-3.9	18
17	Cagliari	20	4	6	10	-14	-5.3	18
18	Verona	21	4	5	12	-10	-7.8	17
19	Empoli	20	3	4	13	-24	-10.8	13
20	Salernitana	20	2	6	12	-23	-22.0	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	10	8	2	0	+12	+10.7	26
2	Inter	10	8	1	1	+19	+15.8	25
3	Roma	11	7	3	1	+15	+7.5	24
4	Milan	10	8	0	2	+13	+4.8	24
5	Bologna	10	7	2	1	+9	+3.6	23
6	Atalanta	10	7	1	2	+15	+7.7	22
7	Fiorentina	10	6	2	2	+7	+1.2	20
8	Lazio	10	6	2	2	+5	+4.9	20
9	Torino	10	5	4	1	+6	+4.9	19
10	Frosinone	10	5	2	3	+2	-2.5	17
11	Lecce	10	4	4	2	+0	-0.9	16
12	Cagliari	10	4	3	3	-3	+3.0	15
13	Genoa	10	3	5	2	+1	-1.4	14
14	Napoli	10	4	2	4	+0	+7.8	14
15	Monza	10	3	4	3	+0	-3.1	13
16	Verona	10	3	3	4	-2	-1.7	12
17	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-2	-1.2	11
18	Udinese	10	1	6	3	-3	+2.5	9
19	Salernitana	10	1	4	5	-10	-7.8	7
20	Empoli	10	1	2	7	-12	-4.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	2	0	+20	+13.1	26
2	Juventus	10	7	2	1	+8	+7.4	23
3	Milan	10	5	3	2	+4	+0.1	18
4	Napoli	10	5	2	3	+5	+5.4	17
5	Fiorentina	10	4	2	4	+1	-2.2	14
6	Lazio	10	4	1	5	-1	-0.9	13
7	Monza	10	3	3	4	-5	-5.7	12
8	Atalanta	10	3	2	5	-1	+0.0	11
9	Bologna	10	1	6	3	-4	+1.8	9
10	Torino	10	2	3	5	-6	-4.0	9
11	Udinese	10	1	6	3	-8	-6.4	9
12	Genoa	10	2	2	6	-5	-1.7	8
13	Roma	10	2	2	6	-6	+1.0	8
14	Sassuolo	10	2	2	6	-8	-6.9	8
15	Empoli	10	2	2	6	-12	-6.6	8
16	Lecce	10	0	5	5	-6	-9.3	5
17	Verona	11	1	2	8	-8	-6.1	5
18	Salernitana	10	1	2	7	-13	-14.1	5
19	Cagliari	10	0	3	7	-11	-8.3	3
20	Frosinone	10	0	2	8	-16	-8.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.