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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Estoril

T T T S T

2–0

Full-time

Arouca

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

2,0

1,2

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 34%

26%

42%

Points per game

0,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 31%

32%

29%

Both score Ø 34%

32%

35%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,1

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%

10 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 23

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 15. · Arouca 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	32	27	2	3	+59	83
2	Porto	32	25	4	3	+46	79
3	Sp Braga	32	24	2	6	+42	74
4	Sp Lisbon	32	22	4	6	+38	70
5	Guimaraes	32	15	5	12	-3	50
6	Arouca	31	13	9	9	-2	48
7	Chaves	32	12	10	10	-1	46
8	Famalicao	32	13	4	15	-6	43
9	Vizela	32	11	7	14	-2	40
10	Casa Pia	32	11	7	14	-8	40
11	Boavista	32	11	7	14	-14	40
12	Rio Ave	32	10	9	13	-5	39
13	Gil Vicente	32	9	7	16	-9	34
14	Portimonense	32	10	4	18	-20	34
15	Estoril	31	8	4	19	-20	28
16	Maritimo	32	6	5	21	-30	23
17	Pacos Ferreira	32	5	5	22	-35	20
18	Santa Clara	32	4	7	21	-30	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	14	1	1	+33	43
2	Porto	16	14	0	2	+30	42
3	Sp Lisbon	16	13	1	2	+30	40
4	Sp Braga	16	12	2	2	+26	38
5	Guimaraes	16	9	3	4	+5	30
6	Arouca	16	9	2	5	+4	29
7	Boavista	16	8	5	3	+2	29
8	Famalicao	16	9	1	6	+4	28
9	Rio Ave	16	8	2	6	+4	26
10	Chaves	16	6	5	5	+2	23
11	Casa Pia	16	6	4	6	+1	22
12	Gil Vicente	16	5	6	5	+0	21
13	Portimonense	16	6	3	7	-5	21
14	Vizela	16	5	4	7	+0	19
15	Maritimo	16	5	3	8	-3	18
16	Estoril	15	5	2	8	-8	17
17	Santa Clara	16	3	5	8	-12	14
18	Pacos Ferreira	16	2	2	12	-22	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	13	1	2	+26	40
2	Porto	16	11	4	1	+16	37
3	Sp Braga	16	12	0	4	+16	36
4	Sp Lisbon	16	9	3	4	+8	30
5	Chaves	16	6	5	5	-3	23
6	Vizela	16	6	3	7	-2	21
7	Guimaraes	16	6	2	8	-8	20
8	Arouca	15	4	7	4	-6	19
9	Casa Pia	16	5	3	8	-9	18
10	Famalicao	16	4	3	9	-10	15
11	Gil Vicente	16	4	1	11	-9	13
12	Rio Ave	16	2	7	7	-9	13
13	Portimonense	16	4	1	11	-15	13
14	Pacos Ferreira	16	3	3	10	-13	12
15	Estoril	16	3	2	11	-12	11
16	Boavista	16	3	2	11	-16	11
17	Santa Clara	16	1	2	13	-18	5
18	Maritimo	16	1	2	13	-27	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.