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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Arouca

S S S T T

2–0

Full-time

Estoril

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/13 matches

Win Ø 34%

36%

31%

Points per game

1,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

50%

31%

Both score Ø 48%

50%

46%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%

17 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 10. · Estoril 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	13	1	1	+28	40
2	Sp Braga	15	11	1	3	+24	34
3	Porto	14	10	2	2	+26	32
4	Sp Lisbon	14	9	1	4	+14	28
5	Casa Pia	14	8	2	4	+4	26
6	Guimaraes	14	7	2	5	-2	23
7	Rio Ave	14	5	4	5	-2	19
8	Portimonense	15	6	1	8	-4	19
9	Chaves	14	5	4	5	-5	19
10	Arouca	14	5	4	5	-9	19
11	Vizela	15	5	3	7	+0	18
12	Famalicao	15	5	2	8	-4	17
13	Boavista	13	5	2	6	-9	17
14	Estoril	13	4	4	5	-4	16
15	Santa Clara	15	3	4	8	-7	13
16	Gil Vicente	14	3	3	8	-9	12
17	Maritimo	14	1	4	9	-19	7
18	Pacos Ferreira	14	0	2	12	-22	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	8	8	0	0	+21	24
2	Porto	7	6	0	1	+20	18
3	Sp Lisbon	7	6	0	1	+15	18
4	Guimaraes	7	5	1	1	+4	16
5	Sp Braga	7	4	1	2	+9	13
6	Rio Ave	7	4	1	2	+3	13
7	Famalicao	7	4	0	3	+2	12
8	Boavista	7	3	2	2	-3	11
9	Casa Pia	7	3	1	3	+1	10
10	Portimonense	8	3	1	4	-2	10
11	Arouca	7	3	1	3	-3	10
12	Santa Clara	8	2	3	3	-3	9
13	Gil Vicente	8	2	2	4	-3	8
14	Vizela	7	2	1	4	+0	7
15	Chaves	7	1	4	2	-1	7
16	Estoril	6	1	2	3	-6	5
17	Maritimo	6	0	2	4	-4	2
18	Pacos Ferreira	7	0	1	6	-11	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	8	7	0	1	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+7	16
3	Casa Pia	7	5	1	1	+3	16
4	Porto	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Chaves	7	4	0	3	-4	12
6	Estoril	7	3	2	2	+2	11
7	Vizela	8	3	2	3	+0	11
8	Sp Lisbon	7	3	1	3	-1	10
9	Portimonense	7	3	0	4	-2	9
10	Arouca	7	2	3	2	-6	9
11	Guimaraes	7	2	1	4	-6	7
12	Rio Ave	7	1	3	3	-5	6
13	Boavista	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Famalicao	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Maritimo	8	1	2	5	-15	5
16	Santa Clara	7	1	1	5	-4	4
17	Gil Vicente	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Pacos Ferreira	7	0	1	6	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.