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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Estrela

T T T S U

0–1

Full-time

Porto

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Porto

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

25%

75%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

25%

75%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,07 xG 0,38

53% Possession 47%

9 Shots 10

1 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 21

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 13. · Porto 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Boavista	4	3	1	0	+5	+1.8	10
2	Porto	4	3	1	0	+3	+5.3	10
3	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+3	+3.0	10
4	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+6	+5.8	9
5	Guimaraes	4	3	0	1	+0	-0.8	9
6	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.3	7
7	Famalicao	4	2	1	1	+1	-1.9	7
8	Arouca	4	1	3	0	+1	-1.6	6
9	Casa Pia	4	1	2	1	+2	+0.8	5
10	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.1	4
11	Rio Ave	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.6	4
12	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.0	4
13	Estrela	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.9	4
14	Gil Vicente	4	1	0	3	+2	-1.7	3
15	Farense	4	1	0	3	+0	-2.5	3
16	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-1	+0.5	3
17	Portimonense	4	0	2	2	-8	-3.8	2
18	Chaves	4	0	0	4	-10	-4.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.1	6
2	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.5	6
3	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+2	+3.0	6
4	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.6	4
5	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
6	Porto	2	1	1	0	+1	+3.8	4
7	Vizela	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.9	4
8	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
9	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+4	-1.0	3
10	Farense	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.3	3
11	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
12	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
13	Estrela	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.1	3
14	Sp Braga	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.4	1
15	Casa Pia	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.1	1
16	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.5	1
17	Moreirense	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.6	0
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Boavista	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.3	6
2	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.1	6
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.5	6
4	Casa Pia	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.9	4
5	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
6	Moreirense	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
7	Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.7	3
8	Famalicao	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
9	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	-3	-1.2	3
10	Arouca	2	0	2	0	+0	-3.2	2
11	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.0	1
12	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.2	1
13	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.3	1
14	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.3	0
15	Farense	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.2	0
16	Gil Vicente	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
17	Vizela	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.9	0
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-7	-4.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.