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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Leeds

T S S U T

3–1

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 27%

25%

29%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

58%

50%

Both score Ø 51%

63%

38%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,50 xG 1,33

56% Possession 44%

14 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 10

1 Offside 4

9 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 16. · Nott'm Forest 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	24	16	5	3	+29	+26.1	53
2	Man City	24	14	5	5	+26	+16.7	47
3	Aston Villa	24	14	4	6	+9	-3.0	46
4	Man United	24	11	8	5	+8	+12.6	41
5	Chelsea	24	11	7	6	+15	+9.7	40
6	Liverpool	24	11	6	7	+6	+11.8	39
7	Brentford	24	11	3	10	+4	+5.1	36
8	Sunderland	24	9	9	6	+1	-11.5	36
9	Fulham	24	10	4	10	-1	-6.5	34
10	Everton	24	9	7	8	-1	-8.9	34
11	Newcastle	24	9	6	9	+0	+7.7	33
12	Bournemouth	24	8	9	7	-3	+3.1	33
13	Brighton	24	7	10	7	+2	+3.1	31
14	Tottenham	24	7	8	9	+2	-8.0	29
15	Crystal Palace	24	7	8	9	-4	+5.8	29
16	Leeds	24	6	8	10	-11	-1.2	26
17	Nott'm Forest	24	7	5	12	-11	-9.0	26
18	West Ham	24	5	5	14	-19	-14.6	20
19	Burnley	24	3	6	15	-22	-28.3	15
20	Wolves	24	1	5	18	-30	-10.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	12	9	2	1	+21	+12.5	29
2	Arsenal	12	9	2	1	+20	+14.5	29
3	Sunderland	12	7	5	0	+12	-1.5	26
4	Aston Villa	12	8	1	3	+8	+2.5	25
5	Brentford	12	7	3	2	+11	+7.2	24
6	Man United	12	7	3	2	+8	+10.8	24
7	Liverpool	12	7	3	2	+8	+10.9	24
8	Fulham	12	7	2	3	+7	-1.4	23
9	Newcastle	12	7	2	3	+5	+8.9	23
10	Bournemouth	12	6	4	2	+6	+8.2	22
11	Brighton	12	5	6	1	+7	+4.0	21
12	Chelsea	12	6	3	3	+7	+6.1	21
13	Leeds	12	5	4	3	+2	+5.6	19
14	Everton	12	4	4	4	-1	-2.6	16
15	Crystal Palace	12	2	6	4	-4	+6.7	12
16	Nott'm Forest	12	3	3	6	-5	-0.9	12
17	Tottenham	12	2	4	6	-1	-1.8	10
18	Burnley	12	2	4	6	-5	-11.0	10
19	West Ham	12	3	1	8	-10	-4.9	10
20	Wolves	12	1	2	9	-15	-3.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	12	7	3	2	+9	+11.6	24
2	Aston Villa	12	6	3	3	+1	-5.5	21
3	Chelsea	12	5	4	3	+8	+3.6	19
4	Tottenham	12	5	4	3	+3	-6.2	19
5	Man City	12	5	3	4	+5	+4.2	18
6	Everton	12	5	3	4	+0	-6.4	18
7	Man United	12	4	5	3	+0	+1.8	17
8	Crystal Palace	12	5	2	5	+0	-0.9	17
9	Liverpool	12	4	3	5	-2	+0.9	15
10	Nott'm Forest	12	4	2	6	-6	-8.2	14
11	Brentford	12	4	0	8	-7	-2.2	12
12	Fulham	12	3	2	7	-8	-5.1	11
13	Bournemouth	12	2	5	5	-9	-5.0	11
14	Brighton	12	2	4	6	-5	-0.9	10
15	Newcastle	12	2	4	6	-5	-1.2	10
16	West Ham	12	2	4	6	-9	-9.6	10
17	Sunderland	12	2	4	6	-11	-10.0	10
18	Leeds	12	1	4	7	-13	-6.9	7
19	Burnley	12	1	2	9	-17	-17.4	5
20	Wolves	12	0	3	9	-15	-7.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.