Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Cittadella
Benevento
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Cremonese
|
24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | +16 | 45 |
| 2 |
Pisa
|
24 | 12 | 9 | 3 | +13 | 45 |
| 3 |
Lecce
|
23 | 11 | 10 | 2 | +17 | 43 |
| 4 |
Brescia
|
23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | +13 | 43 |
| 5 |
Monza
|
24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | +10 | 41 |
| 6 |
Ascoli
|
24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | +6 | 39 |
| 7 |
Perugia
|
24 | 9 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 38 |
| 8 |
Frosinone
|
23 | 9 | 10 | 4 | +12 | 37 |
| 9 |
Benevento
|
23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | +11 | 37 |
| 10 |
Cittadella
|
23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 35 |
| 11 |
Reggina
|
24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -8 | 32 |
| 12 |
Como
|
23 | 7 | 10 | 6 | +2 | 31 |
| 13 |
Ternana
|
24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | +0 | 31 |
| 14 |
Parma
|
24 | 6 | 10 | 8 | -1 | 28 |
| 15 |
Spal
|
24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | -10 | 24 |
| 16 | Alessandria | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -12 | 23 |
| 17 |
Cosenza
|
23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -17 | 19 |
| 18 |
Crotone
|
23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | -14 | 14 |
| 19 |
Vicenza
|
24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | -19 | 14 |
| 20 | Pordenone | 24 | 2 | 6 | 16 | -28 | 12 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Cittadella
Cittadella
Cremonese
Crotone
Cittadella
Cittadella
Cosenza
Vicenza
Cittadella
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.