Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Tondela
Sp Braga
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Porto
|
34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | +56 | 85 |
| 2 |
Benfica
|
34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | +41 | 75 |
| 3 |
Sp Lisbon
|
33 | 19 | 5 | 9 | +18 | 62 |
| 4 |
Sp Braga
|
34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | +22 | 60 |
| 5 |
Famalicao
|
35 | 16 | 11 | 8 | +6 | 59 |
| 6 |
Rio Ave
|
35 | 16 | 10 | 9 | +12 | 58 |
| 7 |
Guimaraes
|
35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | +17 | 53 |
| 8 |
Gil Vicente
|
35 | 12 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 46 |
| 9 |
Moreirense
|
34 | 10 | 15 | 9 | +4 | 45 |
| 10 |
Santa Clara
|
35 | 11 | 11 | 13 | -5 | 44 |
| 11 |
Boavista
|
35 | 11 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 42 |
| 12 |
Pacos Ferreira
|
35 | 12 | 5 | 18 | -16 | 41 |
| 13 |
Maritimo
|
35 | 9 | 13 | 13 | -8 | 40 |
| 14 |
Belenenses
|
34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | -26 | 35 |
| 15 |
Portimonense
|
35 | 6 | 14 | 15 | -17 | 32 |
| 16 |
Tondela
|
34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | -19 | 31 |
| 17 | Setubal | 32 | 6 | 12 | 14 | -18 | 30 |
| 18 |
Vitoria Setubal
|
32 | 6 | 12 | 14 | -18 | 30 |
| 19 |
Aves
|
34 | 6 | 2 | 26 | -38 | 20 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Pepelu
M
Telmo Arcanjo
F
Coach: Natxo González
Ricardo Esgaio
D
David Carmo
D
João Palhinha
M
Ricardo Horta
M
Coach: Artur Jorge
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Gil Vicente
Tondela
Tondela
Porto
Tondela
Famalicao
Belenenses
Tondela
Tondela
Pacos Ferreira
Artur Soares Dias · 181 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.