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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hugo Miguel

Sp Lisbon

S S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Tondela

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,5

3,8

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

0,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 59%

82%

36%

Points per game

2,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

27%

82%

Both score Ø 50%

36%

64%

Average goals

1,9

3,5

Scored

1,5

Conceded

0,4

1,9

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

62% Possession 38%

14 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

1 Corners 4

4 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 3. · Tondela 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	10	1	1	+27	31
2	Porto	11	9	2	0	+21	29
3	Sp Lisbon	11	9	2	0	+13	29
4	Estoril	11	5	5	1	+7	20
5	Portimonense	12	6	2	4	+4	20
6	Sp Braga	11	5	4	2	+3	19
7	Guimaraes	11	4	4	3	+3	16
8	Gil Vicente	12	3	5	4	+0	14
9	Arouca	12	3	4	5	-5	13
10	Tondela	11	4	0	7	-4	12
11	Boavista	12	2	5	5	-7	11
12	Pacos Ferreira	12	2	5	5	-7	11
13	Famalicao	12	2	4	6	-4	10
14	Maritimo	12	2	4	6	-5	10
15	Vizela	11	1	7	3	-7	10
16	Moreirense	12	1	6	5	-8	9
17	Belenenses	12	1	5	6	-15	8
18	Santa Clara	11	1	3	7	-16	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+8	16
2	Porto	5	5	0	0	+14	15
3	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+9	12
4	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	+3	10
5	Arouca	6	3	1	2	+1	10
6	Boavista	6	2	3	1	+2	9
7	Tondela	6	3	0	3	+0	9
8	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+4	8
9	Vizela	6	1	4	1	+0	7
10	Portimonense	6	2	1	3	-1	7
11	Estoril	5	1	3	1	+0	6
12	Moreirense	6	1	3	2	-1	6
13	Maritimo	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Gil Vicente	6	1	2	3	-1	5
16	Belenenses	6	1	2	3	-9	5
17	Santa Clara	6	1	2	3	-9	5
18	Famalicao	6	0	3	3	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	6	1	0	+18	19
2	Porto	6	4	2	0	+7	14
3	Estoril	6	4	2	0	+7	14
4	Portimonense	6	4	1	1	+5	13
5	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+5	13
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	-1	11
7	Gil Vicente	6	2	3	1	+1	9
8	Famalicao	6	2	1	3	+1	7
9	Guimaraes	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	2	3	-5	5
11	Maritimo	6	1	1	4	-4	4
12	Tondela	5	1	0	4	-4	3
13	Arouca	6	0	3	3	-6	3
14	Belenenses	6	0	3	3	-6	3
15	Moreirense	6	0	3	3	-7	3
16	Vizela	5	0	3	2	-7	3
17	Boavista	6	0	2	4	-9	2
18	Santa Clara	5	0	1	4	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.