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Serie A
Referee: L Massimi
Spezia
T U T S T
0–1
Full-time
Bologna
T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Bologna
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,2
2,8
Scored
1,2
1,2
Conceded
2,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,8
-0,5
This season — Serie A · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 31%
23%
38%
Points per game
0,8
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
77%
62%
Both score Ø 62%
69%
54%
Average goals
3,5
3,3
Scored
1,2
1,5
Conceded
2,4
1,8
Goal diff per game
-1,2
-0,4
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

43% Possession 57%
13 Shots 17
5 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 5
3 Corners 6
4 Offside 0
16 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Spezia 17. · Bologna 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Napoli 13 10 2 1 +19 32
2 Milan 13 10 2 1 +14 32
3 Inter 14 9 4 1 +19 31
4 Atalanta 14 8 4 2 +11 28
5 Roma 13 7 1 5 +8 22
6 Lazio 13 6 3 4 +4 21
7 Fiorentina 14 7 0 7 +2 21
8 Juventus 14 6 3 5 +2 21
9 Verona 14 5 4 5 +3 19
10 Empoli 14 6 1 7 -5 19
11 Bologna 13 5 3 5 -5 18
12 Torino 13 5 2 6 +4 17
13 Sassuolo 13 4 3 6 -1 15
14 Udinese 14 3 6 5 -4 15
15 Sampdoria 14 4 3 7 -6 15
16 Venezia 14 4 3 7 -9 15
17 Spezia 13 3 2 8 -16 11
18 Genoa 14 1 7 6 -9 10
19 Cagliari 14 1 5 8 -13 8
20 Salernitana 14 2 2 10 -18 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Spezia Bologna
Arkadiusz Reca 🟨
38′
Half-time 0–0
E. Salcedo 🔁
↦ J. Antiste
58′
E. Colley 🔁
↦ D. Strelec
58′
J. Sala 🔁
↦ A. Reca
58′
Eddie Salcedo 🟨
70′
75′
🔁 A. Skov Olsen
↦ R. Orsolini
75′
🔁 N. Sansone
↦ M. Barrow
75′
🔁 E. Vignato
↦ M. Svanberg
K. Agudelo 🔁
↦ V. Kovalenko
76′
Salvador Ferrer 🔁
↦ K. Amian
76′
M'Bala Nzola 🟨
82′
83′
M. Arnautović 0–1
85′
🔁 K. Bonifazi
↦ N. Domínguez
88′
🟨 Marko Arnautović
90′
🔁 I. Mbaye
↦ M. Arnautović
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Spezia

4-3-3
94 I. Provedel G
43 D. Nikolaou D
20 S. Bastoni M
27 K. Amian D
28 M. Erlić D
13 A. Reca D
8 V. Kovalenko M
25 G. Maggiore M
18 M'Bala Nzola F
44 D. Strelec F
22 J. Antiste F
Bench (10)
29 E. Salcedo
19 E. Colley
7 J. Sala
33 K. Agudelo
21 Salvador Ferrer
1 J. Zoet
40 P. Zovko
15 P. Hristov
9 R. Manaj
17 S. Podgoreanu

Coach: T. Motta

Bologna

3-4-2-1
28 Ł. Skorupski G
17 G. Medel D
5 A. Soumaoro D
6 A. Theate D
3 A. Hickey M
21 R. Soriano F
32 M. Svanberg M
8 N. Domínguez M
9 M. Arnautović F
7 R. Orsolini M
99 M. Barrow F
Bench (12)
11 A. Skov Olsen
10 N. Sansone
55 E. Vignato
4 K. Bonifazi
15 I. Mbaye
14 N. Viola
2 L. Binks
20 S. van Hooijdonk
35 M. Dijks
19 F. Santander
22 F. Bardi
74 G. Cangiano

Coach: S. Mihajlović

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,05
U
3,44
B ✓
2,31
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,76
U2,5 ✓
2,07
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

L Massimi · 76 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
28,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.