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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Sp Lisbon

S S S S S

1–1

Full-time

Tondela

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

3,3

0,8

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+2,8

-1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 49%

72%

25%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

66%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

63%

53%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

2,2

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

17 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 7

4 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 18

4 Yellow cards 6

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 3. · Tondela 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	32	26	3	3	+68	81
2	Porto	32	25	4	3	+49	79
3	Sp Lisbon	32	23	4	5	+40	73
4	Sp Braga	33	20	4	9	+17	64
5	Moreirense	33	16	4	13	-3	52
6	Guimaraes	32	13	7	12	+6	46
7	Santa Clara	33	11	9	13	+1	42
8	Rio Ave	32	11	9	12	-3	42
9	Boavista	33	12	5	16	-7	41
10	Belenenses	32	9	13	10	-8	40
11	Portimonense	33	11	6	16	-13	39
12	Maritimo	33	12	3	18	-17	39
13	Aves	33	10	6	17	-13	36
14	Vitoria Setubal	32	7	12	13	-10	33
15	Chaves	32	8	8	16	-19	32
16	Tondela	32	8	7	17	-17	31
17	Nacional	32	7	7	18	-33	28
18	Feirense	33	2	11	20	-38	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	14	1	1	+25	43
2	Porto	16	14	0	2	+31	42
3	Benfica	16	13	2	1	+43	41
4	Sp Braga	16	12	1	3	+15	37
5	Guimaraes	16	9	4	3	+11	31
6	Boavista	17	10	1	6	+7	31
7	Portimonense	17	8	4	5	+5	28
8	Moreirense	16	8	3	5	+1	27
9	Maritimo	16	8	2	6	+1	26
10	Rio Ave	16	5	6	5	-1	21
11	Tondela	16	6	3	7	-5	21
12	Santa Clara	17	5	5	7	-2	20
13	Belenenses	16	5	5	6	-4	20
14	Chaves	16	4	6	6	-2	18
15	Aves	17	5	3	9	-3	18
16	Vitoria Setubal	16	4	6	6	-3	18
17	Nacional	16	5	3	8	-6	18
18	Feirense	16	1	6	9	-13	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	13	1	2	+25	40
2	Porto	16	11	4	1	+18	37
3	Sp Lisbon	16	9	3	4	+15	30
4	Sp Braga	17	8	3	6	+2	27
5	Moreirense	17	8	1	8	-4	25
6	Santa Clara	16	6	4	6	+3	22
7	Rio Ave	16	6	3	7	-2	21
8	Belenenses	16	4	8	4	-4	20
9	Aves	16	5	3	8	-10	18
10	Guimaraes	16	4	3	9	-5	15
11	Vitoria Setubal	16	3	6	7	-7	15
12	Chaves	16	4	2	10	-17	14
13	Maritimo	17	4	1	12	-18	13
14	Portimonense	16	3	2	11	-18	11
15	Tondela	16	2	4	10	-12	10
16	Boavista	16	2	4	10	-14	10
17	Nacional	16	2	4	10	-27	10
18	Feirense	17	1	5	11	-25	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.