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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Sp Lisbon

S T S U S

2–0

Full-time

Tondela

T T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

1,7

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/28 matches

Win Ø 41%

56%

25%

Points per game

1,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

52%

36%

Both score Ø 48%

59%

36%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,6

0,8

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

56% Possession 44%

8 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 20

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 4. · Tondela 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	29	22	4	3	+42	70
2	Benfica	29	21	5	3	+40	68
3	Sp Braga	28	15	4	9	+14	49
4	Sp Lisbon	27	15	4	8	+14	49
5	Famalicao	27	13	7	7	+4	46
6	Rio Ave	28	12	8	8	+9	44
7	Guimaraes	27	10	10	7	+15	40
8	Boavista	29	10	8	11	-1	38
9	Santa Clara	29	9	10	10	-6	37
10	Moreirense	28	8	11	9	+2	35
11	Gil Vicente	29	8	10	11	-7	34
12	Maritimo	29	6	12	11	-10	30
13	Tondela	28	7	9	12	-11	30
14	Setubal	27	6	12	9	-12	30
15	Vitoria Setubal	27	6	12	9	-12	30
16	Belenenses	28	8	6	14	-19	30
17	Pacos Ferreira	28	8	4	16	-16	28
18	Portimonense	29	3	14	12	-17	23
19	Aves	28	4	2	22	-29	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	14	12	1	1	+25	37
2	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+22	32
3	Sp Braga	14	8	3	3	+8	27
4	Sp Lisbon	13	9	0	4	+8	27
5	Famalicao	14	8	3	3	+6	27
6	Moreirense	14	6	4	4	+4	22
7	Guimaraes	13	6	3	4	+10	21
8	Rio Ave	15	5	5	5	+3	20
9	Maritimo	15	4	7	4	+1	19
10	Boavista	15	5	4	6	+1	19
11	Gil Vicente	14	4	7	3	+0	19
12	Santa Clara	15	5	4	6	-5	19
13	Pacos Ferreira	15	5	2	8	-4	17
14	Setubal	13	3	7	3	-4	16
15	Vitoria Setubal	13	3	7	3	-4	16
16	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-11	15
17	Portimonense	14	2	8	4	-3	14
18	Tondela	14	2	5	7	-9	11
19	Aves	14	3	1	10	-10	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	11	3	1	+18	36
2	Porto	15	10	3	2	+17	33
3	Rio Ave	13	7	3	3	+6	24
4	Sp Lisbon	14	6	4	4	+6	22
5	Sp Braga	14	7	1	6	+6	22
6	Guimaraes	14	4	7	3	+5	19
7	Famalicao	13	5	4	4	-2	19
8	Tondela	14	5	4	5	-2	19
9	Boavista	14	5	4	5	-2	19
10	Santa Clara	14	4	6	4	-1	18
11	Gil Vicente	15	4	3	8	-7	15
12	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-8	15
13	Setubal	14	3	5	6	-8	14
14	Vitoria Setubal	14	3	5	6	-8	14
15	Moreirense	14	2	7	5	-2	13
16	Maritimo	14	2	5	7	-11	11
17	Pacos Ferreira	13	3	2	8	-12	11
18	Portimonense	15	1	6	8	-14	9
19	Aves	14	1	1	12	-19	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.