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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Brighton

T U S U S

1–1

Full-time

Bournemouth

T U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Bournemouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,3

4,2

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 31%

33%

29%

Points per game

1,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

52%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,5

1,6

Conceded

1,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,02 xG 1,29

67% Possession 33%

17 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 12. · Bournemouth 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	22	15	5	2	+26	+23.6	50
2	Man City	22	13	4	5	+24	+15.5	43
3	Aston Villa	22	13	4	5	+8	-4.0	43
4	Liverpool	22	10	6	6	+4	+11.3	36
5	Man United	22	9	8	5	+6	+13.2	35
6	Chelsea	22	9	7	6	+12	+7.7	34
7	Brentford	22	10	3	9	+5	+6.0	33
8	Newcastle	22	9	6	7	+5	+8.6	33
9	Sunderland	22	8	9	5	+0	-11.7	33
10	Everton	22	9	5	8	-1	-8.0	32
11	Fulham	22	9	4	9	-1	-6.1	31
12	Brighton	21	7	8	6	+3	+2.6	29
13	Crystal Palace	22	7	7	8	-2	+4.8	28
14	Tottenham	22	7	6	9	+2	-7.6	27
15	Bournemouth	21	6	8	7	-6	+1.5	26
16	Leeds	22	6	7	9	-7	+0.1	25
17	Nott'm Forest	22	6	4	12	-13	-6.6	22
18	West Ham	22	4	5	13	-20	-13.8	17
19	Burnley	22	3	5	14	-19	-26.6	14
20	Wolves	22	1	5	16	-26	-10.4	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	11	9	2	0	+21	+14.0	29
2	Man City	11	8	2	1	+19	+12.2	26
3	Aston Villa	11	8	1	2	+9	+0.5	25
4	Brentford	11	7	3	1	+13	+6.2	24
5	Sunderland	11	6	5	0	+9	-2.6	23
6	Newcastle	11	7	2	2	+7	+7.9	23
7	Man United	11	6	3	2	+7	+10.9	21
8	Liverpool	11	6	3	2	+5	+8.9	21
9	Fulham	11	6	2	3	+6	-0.8	20
10	Brighton	10	5	4	1	+7	+4.0	19
11	Leeds	11	5	4	2	+6	+7.7	19
12	Bournemouth	11	5	4	2	+5	+6.7	19
13	Chelsea	11	5	3	3	+6	+4.5	18
14	Everton	11	4	3	4	-1	-1.9	15
15	Crystal Palace	11	2	6	3	-2	+7.1	12
16	Nott'm Forest	11	3	2	6	-5	+0.5	11
17	Tottenham	11	2	3	6	-1	-0.7	9
18	Burnley	11	2	3	6	-5	-10.4	9
19	West Ham	11	2	1	8	-12	-5.8	7
20	Wolves	11	1	2	8	-13	-3.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	11	6	3	2	+5	+9.6	21
2	Tottenham	11	5	3	3	+3	-6.8	18
3	Aston Villa	11	5	3	3	-1	-4.5	18
4	Man City	11	5	2	4	+5	+3.2	17
5	Everton	11	5	2	4	+0	-6.1	17
6	Chelsea	11	4	4	3	+6	+3.2	16
7	Crystal Palace	11	5	1	5	+0	-2.3	16
8	Liverpool	11	4	3	4	-1	+2.4	15
9	Man United	11	3	5	3	-1	+2.3	14
10	Fulham	11	3	2	6	-7	-5.3	11
11	Nott'm Forest	11	3	2	6	-8	-7.1	11
12	Newcastle	11	2	4	5	-2	+0.7	10
13	Brighton	11	2	4	5	-4	-1.5	10
14	West Ham	11	2	4	5	-8	-8.0	10
15	Sunderland	11	2	4	5	-9	-9.1	10
16	Brentford	11	3	0	8	-8	-0.1	9
17	Bournemouth	10	1	4	5	-11	-5.3	7
18	Leeds	11	1	3	7	-13	-7.5	6
19	Burnley	11	1	2	8	-14	-16.2	5
20	Wolves	11	0	3	8	-13	-7.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.