Premier League
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Everton
Leeds
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
|
23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | +25 | +24.1 | 50 |
| 2 |
Man City
|
23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | +26 | +15.7 | 46 |
| 3 |
Aston Villa
|
23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | +10 | -5.0 | 46 |
| 4 |
Man United
|
23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | +7 | +12.7 | 38 |
| 5 |
Chelsea
|
23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | +14 | +8.1 | 37 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | +3 | +9.9 | 36 |
| 7 |
Fulham
|
23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | +0 | -6.6 | 34 |
| 8 |
Brentford
|
23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | +3 | +7.1 | 33 |
| 9 |
Newcastle
|
23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | +3 | +9.6 | 33 |
| 10 |
Sunderland
|
23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | -2 | -12.6 | 33 |
| 11 |
Everton
|
22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | -1 | -8.0 | 32 |
| 12 |
Brighton
|
23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | +2.8 | 30 |
| 13 |
Bournemouth
|
23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | -5 | +3.1 | 30 |
| 14 |
Tottenham
|
23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | +2 | -6.9 | 28 |
| 15 |
Crystal Palace
|
23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | -4 | +4.4 | 28 |
| 16 |
Leeds
|
22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -7 | +0.1 | 25 |
| 17 |
Nott'm Forest
|
23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -11 | -7.6 | 25 |
| 18 |
West Ham
|
23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -18 | -13.0 | 20 |
| 19 |
Burnley
|
23 | 3 | 6 | 14 | -19 | -27.2 | 15 |
| 20 |
Wolves
|
23 | 1 | 5 | 17 | -28 | -10.6 | 8 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
J. Pickford
G
N. Patterson
D
J. Tarkowski
D
J. O'Brien
D
V. Mykolenko
D
J. Garner
M
D. McNeil
M
H. Armstrong
M
I. Ndiaye
M
T. Barry
F
Coach: Leighton Baines
K. Darlow
G
J. Rodon
D
S. Bornauw
D
P. Struijk
D
J. Bogle
M
E. Ampadu
M
I. Gruev
M
J. Justin
M
A. Stach
F
B. Aaronson
F
D. Calvert-Lewin
F
Coach: Daniel Farke
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Aston Villa
Everton
Everton
Sunderland
Everton
Wolves
Everton
Brentford
Nott'm Forest
Everton
S Hooper · 168 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,05 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.