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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Chaves

S T T U S

4–1

Full-time

Nacional

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 23%

23%

Points per game

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

47%

53%

Both score Ø 42%

43%

40%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

39% Possession 61%

12 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 11

4 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chaves 16. · Nacional 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	31	24	4	3	+45	76
2	Benfica	30	24	3	3	+61	75
3	Sp Lisbon	31	22	4	5	+33	70
4	Sp Braga	30	20	4	6	+23	64
5	Moreirense	30	15	4	11	-1	49
6	Guimaraes	31	13	6	12	+6	45
7	Belenenses	31	9	13	9	-1	40
8	Rio Ave	31	10	9	12	-4	39
9	Santa Clara	31	10	8	13	-1	38
10	Aves	31	10	6	15	-8	36
11	Portimonense	31	10	6	15	-10	36
12	Vitoria Setubal	31	7	12	12	-7	33
13	Maritimo	30	10	3	17	-19	33
14	Boavista	30	9	5	16	-14	32
15	Tondela	30	8	7	15	-13	31
16	Chaves	30	7	7	16	-22	28
17	Nacional	30	7	6	17	-30	27
18	Feirense	31	2	9	20	-38	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	14	1	1	+25	43
2	Porto	15	13	0	2	+27	39
3	Benfica	15	12	2	1	+39	38
4	Sp Braga	15	12	1	2	+18	37
5	Guimaraes	15	9	3	3	+11	30
6	Moreirense	15	8	3	4	+2	27
7	Portimonense	16	7	4	5	+4	25
8	Boavista	15	8	1	6	+3	25
9	Rio Ave	16	5	6	5	-1	21
10	Tondela	15	6	3	6	-3	21
11	Belenenses	15	5	5	5	+3	20
12	Maritimo	14	6	2	6	-2	20
13	Santa Clara	16	5	4	7	-2	19
14	Vitoria Setubal	15	4	6	5	+0	18
15	Aves	16	5	3	8	-2	18
16	Nacional	16	5	3	8	-6	18
17	Chaves	15	3	6	6	-5	15
18	Feirense	15	1	5	9	-13	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	12	1	2	+22	37
2	Porto	16	11	4	1	+18	37
3	Sp Lisbon	15	8	3	4	+8	27
4	Sp Braga	15	8	3	4	+5	27
5	Moreirense	15	7	1	7	-3	22
6	Belenenses	16	4	8	4	-4	20
7	Santa Clara	15	5	4	6	+1	19
8	Rio Ave	15	5	3	7	-3	18
9	Aves	15	5	3	7	-6	18
10	Guimaraes	16	4	3	9	-5	15
11	Vitoria Setubal	16	3	6	7	-7	15
12	Chaves	15	4	1	10	-17	13
13	Maritimo	16	4	1	11	-17	13
14	Portimonense	15	3	2	10	-14	11
15	Tondela	15	2	4	9	-10	10
16	Nacional	14	2	3	9	-24	9
17	Boavista	15	1	4	10	-17	7
18	Feirense	16	1	4	11	-25	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.