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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Oliveira

Rio Ave

S T S S U

2–4

Full-time

Tondela

U U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/5 matches

Win Ø 35%

50%

20%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

50%

40%

Both score Ø 58%

75%

40%

Average goals

3,5

1,6

Scored

2,3

0,8

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

65% Possession 35%

23 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 0

3 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 6. · Tondela 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Famalicao	5	4	1	0	+6	13
2	Porto	5	4	0	1	+12	12
3	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+11	12
4	Boavista	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Moreirense	5	2	2	1	+2	8
6	Rio Ave	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Sp Lisbon	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Guimaraes	5	1	3	1	+1	6
9	Tondela	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	Setubal	5	1	3	1	-3	6
11	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	3	1	-3	6
12	Gil Vicente	6	1	3	2	-4	6
13	Santa Clara	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Portimonense	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Sp Braga	6	1	1	4	-5	4
17	Aves	5	1	0	4	-8	3
18	Belenenses	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	1	4	-9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+11	9
2	Benfica	3	2	0	1	+5	6
3	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Gil Vicente	4	1	3	0	+1	6
6	Guimaraes	3	1	2	0	+4	5
7	Setubal	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Rio Ave	2	1	1	0	+4	4
10	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Aves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Sp Lisbon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	-2	3
14	Maritimo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Santa Clara	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Belenenses	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+3	7
2	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Tondela	3	1	2	0	+1	5
4	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Porto	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Belenenses	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-2	2
13	Sp Braga	4	0	1	3	-3	1
14	Guimaraes	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Setubal	2	0	1	1	-4	1
16	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	1	1	-4	1
17	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	1	2	-7	1
18	Gil Vicente	2	0	0	2	-5	0
19	Aves	3	0	0	3	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.