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Eredivisie

Referee: B Nijhuis

Nijmegen

S S S S T

3–1

Full-time

PSV Eindhoven

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen PSV Eindhoven

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

2,2

2,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 25/26 matches

Win Ø 64%

40%

88%

Points per game

1,5

2,8

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

68%

69%

Both score Ø 55%

68%

42%

Average goals

3,5

3,6

Scored

2,0

3,1

Conceded

1,6

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+2,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,65 xG 3,36

34% Possession 66%

8 Shots 27

4 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 5

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 6. · PSV Eindhoven 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	26	23	3	0	+68	+54.2	72
2	Feyenoord	26	19	5	2	+45	+50.4	62
3	Twente	26	16	5	5	+24	+16.5	53
4	AZ Alkmaar	26	14	7	5	+30	+15.5	49
5	Ajax	26	11	8	7	+10	+10.0	41
6	Nijmegen	25	10	8	7	+10	-9.3	38
7	Go Ahead Eagles	25	10	6	9	+3	-5.0	36
8	Utrecht	26	9	9	8	-2	-5.0	36
9	For Sittard	26	9	7	10	-11	+2.2	34
10	Sparta Rotterdam	26	8	7	11	-5	-7.9	31
11	Heerenveen	26	9	4	13	-7	-4.3	31
12	Almere City	26	7	9	10	-17	-12.5	30
13	Zwolle	26	7	7	12	-13	-11.0	28
14	Heracles	26	7	5	14	-25	-22.0	26
15	Excelsior	26	4	10	12	-18	-12.5	22
16	Waalwijk	26	6	4	16	-19	-11.8	22
17	Vitesse	26	4	5	17	-32	-20.0	17
18	Volendam	26	3	5	18	-41	-27.7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	12	1	0	+29	+29.9	37
2	Twente	13	10	1	2	+13	+12.4	31
3	Feyenoord	13	9	3	1	+24	+27.0	30
4	AZ Alkmaar	13	8	2	3	+19	+13.5	26
5	Ajax	13	7	4	2	+14	+9.0	25
6	For Sittard	13	7	3	3	+8	+11.7	24
7	Nijmegen	12	7	2	3	+12	+4.3	23
8	Go Ahead Eagles	13	6	3	4	+10	+4.7	21
9	Heerenveen	13	6	2	5	+5	+6.0	20
10	Utrecht	13	5	5	3	+1	+0.5	20
11	Heracles	13	5	3	5	-8	-7.6	18
12	Sparta Rotterdam	13	3	5	5	-5	+0.8	14
13	Waalwijk	13	4	2	7	-5	-3.2	14
14	Almere City	13	3	5	5	-8	-4.3	14
15	Excelsior	13	2	7	4	-4	+0.2	13
16	Zwolle	13	3	3	7	-12	+0.4	12
17	Vitesse	13	1	5	7	-10	-5.3	8
18	Volendam	13	2	1	10	-25	-8.1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	11	2	0	+39	+24.4	35
2	Feyenoord	13	10	2	1	+21	+23.5	32
3	AZ Alkmaar	13	6	5	2	+11	+2.0	23
4	Twente	13	6	4	3	+11	+4.2	22
5	Sparta Rotterdam	13	5	2	6	+0	-8.7	17
6	Zwolle	13	4	4	5	-1	-11.5	16
7	Utrecht	13	4	4	5	-3	-5.6	16
8	Ajax	13	4	4	5	-4	+0.9	16
9	Almere City	13	4	4	5	-9	-8.2	16
10	Nijmegen	13	3	6	4	-2	-13.5	15
11	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	3	5	-7	-9.6	15
12	Heerenveen	13	3	2	8	-12	-10.3	11
13	For Sittard	13	2	4	7	-19	-9.5	10
14	Excelsior	13	2	3	8	-14	-12.7	9
15	Vitesse	13	3	0	10	-22	-14.7	9
16	Waalwijk	13	2	2	9	-14	-8.6	8
17	Heracles	13	2	2	9	-17	-14.4	8
18	Volendam	13	1	4	8	-16	-19.6	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.