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Eredivisie

Referee: R Dieperink

PSV Eindhoven

T S S S T

3–1

Full-time

Heerenveen

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,5

4,0

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

1,3

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 23/22 matches

Win Ø 60%

83%

36%

Points per game

2,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 76%

83%

68%

Both score Ø 69%

70%

68%

Average goals

4,1

3,4

Scored

2,9

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,27 xG 1,28

65% Possession 35%

29 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 8

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 1. · Heerenveen 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	23	19	2	2	+39	+23.3	59
2	Feyenoord	23	14	3	6	+21	+21.0	45
3	Nijmegen	23	12	6	5	+19	+7.7	42
4	Ajax	22	10	9	3	+14	+6.6	39
5	Sparta Rotterdam	23	11	4	8	-7	-1.8	37
6	AZ Alkmaar	23	10	6	7	+2	+15.3	36
7	Twente	23	8	11	4	+12	+24.3	35
8	Groningen	22	9	4	9	+2	+7.8	31
9	Heerenveen	22	8	6	8	+0	+11.2	30
10	Utrecht	22	8	5	9	+5	-0.9	29
11	For Sittard	24	8	5	11	-7	-13.8	29
12	Excelsior	24	7	5	12	-15	-15.3	26
13	Zwolle	23	7	5	11	-16	-16.3	26
14	Volendam	23	6	6	11	-12	-19.0	24
15	Go Ahead Eagles	23	4	11	8	-6	-15.6	23
16	NAC Breda	23	4	7	12	-12	-7.8	19
17	Telstar	23	3	9	11	-12	-11.4	18
18	Heracles	23	5	2	16	-27	-15.5	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	8	2	1	+20	+13.2	26
2	Feyenoord	12	8	1	3	+12	+14.1	25
3	Nijmegen	11	7	2	2	+13	+8.8	23
4	Ajax	11	7	2	2	+11	+10.7	23
5	For Sittard	12	6	3	3	+3	-0.4	21
6	Twente	11	5	4	2	+7	+14.6	19
7	Volendam	12	5	4	3	+4	-1.9	19
8	Zwolle	11	6	1	4	+0	-1.2	19
9	Sparta Rotterdam	12	5	3	4	-5	-0.2	18
10	AZ Alkmaar	11	4	5	2	+2	+8.5	17
11	Heerenveen	12	4	5	3	+1	+9.3	17
12	Utrecht	10	5	1	4	+7	+3.7	16
13	Groningen	12	4	3	5	+4	+5.8	15
14	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	6	2	+1	+0.4	15
15	Excelsior	12	4	2	6	-3	-6.6	14
16	Heracles	11	4	1	6	-5	-2.2	13
17	NAC Breda	12	3	3	6	-4	+2.4	12
18	Telstar	12	1	5	6	-6	-1.8	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	11	0	1	+19	+10.2	33
2	Feyenoord	11	6	2	3	+9	+7.0	20
3	Nijmegen	12	5	4	3	+6	-1.1	19
4	AZ Alkmaar	12	6	1	5	+0	+6.8	19
5	Sparta Rotterdam	11	6	1	4	-2	-1.6	19
6	Twente	12	3	7	2	+5	+9.7	16
7	Ajax	11	3	7	1	+3	-4.1	16
8	Groningen	10	5	1	4	-2	+2.0	16
9	Heerenveen	10	4	1	5	-1	+1.9	13
10	Utrecht	12	3	4	5	-2	-4.6	13
11	Excelsior	12	3	3	6	-12	-8.7	12
12	Telstar	11	2	4	5	-6	-9.6	10
13	Go Ahead Eagles	12	1	5	6	-7	-16.0	8
14	For Sittard	12	2	2	8	-10	-13.3	8
15	NAC Breda	11	1	4	6	-8	-10.2	7
16	Zwolle	12	1	4	7	-16	-15.0	7
17	Volendam	11	1	2	8	-16	-17.1	5
18	Heracles	12	1	1	10	-22	-13.4	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.