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Eredivisie

Referee: J Manschot

For Sittard

U U T T S

5–2

Full-time

Excelsior

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

For Sittard Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 24%

30%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

61%

78%

Both score Ø 59%

39%

78%

Average goals

2,7

3,6

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

2,28 xG 1,00

48% Possession 52%

17 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match For Sittard 12. · Excelsior 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	24	21	3	0	+66	+51.9	66
2	Feyenoord	24	17	5	2	+41	+46.3	56
3	Twente	24	15	5	4	+24	+16.0	50
4	AZ Alkmaar	24	12	7	5	+22	+12.0	43
5	Ajax	24	11	6	7	+10	+8.6	39
6	Go Ahead Eagles	23	10	6	7	+6	-4.3	36
7	Nijmegen	23	9	8	6	+9	-7.7	35
8	Utrecht	24	8	8	8	-3	-7.6	32
9	Heerenveen	24	9	4	11	-4	-2.2	31
10	Sparta Rotterdam	24	8	6	10	-4	-6.1	30
11	Zwolle	24	7	6	11	-11	-10.7	27
12	For Sittard	23	7	6	10	-16	+0.0	27
13	Almere City	23	7	6	10	-17	-10.8	27
14	Heracles	23	6	4	13	-24	-19.0	22
15	Excelsior	23	4	9	10	-11	-9.7	21
16	Waalwijk	24	5	3	16	-21	-12.7	18
17	Vitesse	24	4	4	16	-30	-19.6	16
18	Volendam	24	3	4	17	-37	-24.3	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	11	1	0	+28	+28.8	34
2	Twente	12	9	1	2	+12	+10.9	28
3	Feyenoord	12	8	3	1	+21	+24.9	27
4	Ajax	12	7	3	2	+14	+7.9	24
5	AZ Alkmaar	12	7	2	3	+15	+11.7	23
6	Go Ahead Eagles	12	6	3	3	+11	+6.0	21
7	Nijmegen	11	6	2	3	+10	+4.3	20
8	Heerenveen	12	6	2	4	+6	+8.1	20
9	For Sittard	11	5	3	3	+3	+8.4	18
10	Utrecht	12	4	5	3	+0	-1.0	17
11	Heracles	11	4	2	5	-10	-6.7	14
12	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	4	5	-5	+1.1	13
13	Almere City	12	3	4	5	-8	-3.2	13
14	Excelsior	12	2	6	4	-4	-0.2	12
15	Waalwijk	12	3	2	7	-7	-4.4	11
16	Zwolle	12	3	2	7	-12	-1.3	11
17	Vitesse	12	1	4	7	-10	-6.2	7
18	Volendam	12	2	1	9	-21	-6.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	10	2	0	+38	+23.1	32
2	Feyenoord	12	9	2	1	+20	+21.4	29
3	Twente	12	6	4	2	+12	+5.2	22
4	AZ Alkmaar	12	5	5	2	+7	+0.3	20
5	Sparta Rotterdam	12	5	2	5	+1	-7.2	17
6	Zwolle	12	4	4	4	+1	-9.4	16
7	Nijmegen	12	3	6	3	-1	-12.0	15
8	Utrecht	12	4	3	5	-3	-6.6	15
9	Ajax	12	4	3	5	-4	+0.7	15
10	Go Ahead Eagles	11	4	3	4	-5	-10.3	15
11	Almere City	11	4	2	5	-9	-7.6	14
12	Heerenveen	12	3	2	7	-10	-10.3	11
13	Excelsior	11	2	3	6	-7	-9.6	9
14	For Sittard	12	2	3	7	-19	-8.3	9
15	Vitesse	12	3	0	9	-20	-13.4	9
16	Heracles	12	2	2	8	-14	-12.3	8
17	Waalwijk	12	2	1	9	-14	-8.3	7
18	Volendam	12	1	3	8	-16	-17.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.