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Eredivisie

Referee: M Nagtegaal

Excelsior

S U T T T

1–2

Full-time

Vitesse

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Vitesse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 16%

18%

14%

Points per game

1,0

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

77%

50%

Both score Ø 61%

77%

45%

Average goals

3,6

2,8

Scored

1,6

0,7

Conceded

2,0

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,53 xG 1,19

46% Possession 54%

12 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

10 Corners 11

3 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 15. · Vitesse 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	23	21	2	0	+66	+52.6	65
2	Feyenoord	22	16	4	2	+39	+46.1	52
3	Twente	22	13	5	4	+20	+13.0	44
4	AZ Alkmaar	22	11	6	5	+20	+12.4	39
5	Ajax	22	10	6	6	+10	+7.6	36
6	Go Ahead Eagles	21	9	6	6	+8	-4.4	33
7	Nijmegen	22	8	8	6	+6	-9.1	32
8	Utrecht	23	8	8	7	-1	-7.0	32
9	Sparta Rotterdam	23	8	5	10	-4	-6.1	29
10	Zwolle	23	7	6	10	-9	-9.7	27
11	Almere City	22	7	6	9	-15	-11.3	27
12	For Sittard	23	7	6	10	-16	+0.0	27
13	Heerenveen	22	7	4	11	-10	-4.7	25
14	Heracles	23	6	4	13	-24	-19.0	22
15	Excelsior	22	4	9	9	-10	-10.1	21
16	Waalwijk	23	5	3	15	-20	-11.8	18
17	Volendam	22	3	4	15	-30	-21.4	13
18	Vitesse	22	3	4	15	-30	-17.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	11	0	0	+28	+29.5	33
2	Feyenoord	12	8	3	1	+21	+24.9	27
3	Twente	11	8	1	2	+9	+9.9	25
4	Ajax	11	6	3	2	+12	+7.3	21
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	6	2	3	+13	+12.1	20
6	Nijmegen	11	6	2	3	+10	+4.3	20
7	Go Ahead Eagles	11	5	3	3	+10	+5.0	18
8	For Sittard	11	5	3	3	+3	+8.4	18
9	Heerenveen	11	5	2	4	+4	+7.1	17
10	Utrecht	12	4	5	3	+0	-1.0	17
11	Heracles	11	4	2	5	-10	-6.7	14
12	Almere City	11	3	4	4	-6	-3.7	13
13	Excelsior	11	2	6	3	-3	-0.5	12
14	Sparta Rotterdam	11	3	3	5	-5	+1.1	12
15	Waalwijk	12	3	2	7	-7	-4.4	11
16	Zwolle	12	3	2	7	-12	-1.3	11
17	Vitesse	11	1	4	6	-9	-4.1	7
18	Volendam	10	2	1	7	-14	-3.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	10	2	0	+38	+23.1	32
2	Feyenoord	10	8	1	1	+18	+21.1	25
3	Twente	11	5	4	2	+11	+3.0	19
4	AZ Alkmaar	11	5	4	2	+7	+0.3	19
5	Sparta Rotterdam	12	5	2	5	+1	-7.2	17
6	Zwolle	11	4	4	3	+3	-8.4	16
7	Utrecht	11	4	3	4	-1	-6.0	15
8	Ajax	11	4	3	4	-2	+0.2	15
9	Go Ahead Eagles	10	4	3	3	-2	-9.4	15
10	Almere City	11	4	2	5	-9	-7.6	14
11	Nijmegen	11	2	6	3	-4	-13.4	12
12	Excelsior	11	2	3	6	-7	-9.6	9
13	For Sittard	12	2	3	7	-19	-8.3	9
14	Heerenveen	11	2	2	7	-14	-11.9	8
15	Heracles	12	2	2	8	-14	-12.3	8
16	Waalwijk	11	2	1	8	-13	-7.3	7
17	Volendam	12	1	3	8	-16	-17.9	6
18	Vitesse	11	2	0	9	-21	-13.1	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.