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Referee: E Blank

Hercules

S T S S U

3–2

Full-time

Ajax

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hercules Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,2

4,3

Scored

2,3

2,5

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

24% Possession 76%

14 Shots 28

7 Shots on target 10

4 Blocked shots 7

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RKAV Volendam	4	3	0	1	+9	9
2	DEM	4	3	0	1	+4	9
3	Quick Boys	3	3	0	0	+4	9
4	Hercules	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Excelsior Maassluis	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Nijmegen	2	2	0	0	+7	6
7	Cambuur	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Groene Ster	3	2	0	1	+6	6
9	De Treffers	2	2	0	0	+6	6
10	Sparta Nijkerk	3	2	0	1	+3	6
11	Groningen	2	2	0	0	+3	6
12	Den Haag	2	2	0	0	+3	6
13	For Sittard	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	Spakenburg	3	2	0	1	+2	6
15	Excelsior	2	2	0	0	+2	6
16	Hoogeveen	3	2	0	1	+2	6
17	AFC Amsterdam	2	2	0	0	+2	6
18	Eemdijk	3	2	0	1	+1	6
19	Ijsselmeervogels	3	2	0	1	+1	6
20	OJC Rosmalen	3	2	0	1	-1	6
21	UNA	3	2	0	1	-1	6
22	GVVV Veenendaal	3	2	0	1	-1	6
23	Gemert	2	1	1	0	+2	4
24	RKSV Nuenen	2	1	1	0	+2	4
25	SVV Scheveningen	2	1	1	0	+1	4
26	SJC Noordwijk	3	1	1	1	-1	4
27	TEC	3	1	1	1	-3	4
28	Almere City	1	1	0	0	+7	3
29	Katwijk	1	1	0	0	+5	3
30	Kloetinge	2	1	0	1	+4	3
31	Heerenveen	1	1	0	0	+4	3
32	VV Scherpenzeel	2	1	0	1	+3	3
33	Blauw Geel	2	1	0	1	+3	3
34	Go Ahead Eagles	1	1	0	0	+3	3
35	GVV Unitas	2	1	0	1	+2	3
36	HHC	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Meerssen	2	1	0	1	+1	3
38	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Feyenoord	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Noordwijk	2	1	0	1	+1	3
41	Vitesse	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Harkemase Boys	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Willem II	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Utrecht	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Hoek	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Sportlust '46	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	De Graafschap	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Koninklijke HFC	2	1	0	1	-1	3
50	Dordrecht	2	1	0	1	-1	3
51	Westlandia	2	1	0	1	-1	3
52	HVCH	2	1	0	1	-1	3
53	FC Lisse	2	1	0	1	-1	3
54	Csv Apeldoorn	2	1	0	1	-1	3
55	Olde Veste '54	2	1	0	1	-1	3
56	FC Eindhoven	2	1	0	1	-1	3
57	DVS 33 Ermelo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
58	Barendrecht	2	1	0	1	-2	3
59	Staphorst	2	1	0	1	-2	3
60	Rijnvogels	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Dovo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
62	Vvsb	2	0	1	1	-1	1
63	Hsc 21	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Waalwijk	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	SteDoCo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Den Bosch	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	SC Genemuiden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Berkum	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	TOGB	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Bon Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	AWC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	AGB	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Veensche Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Kozakken Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	ADO '20	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	URK	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	NAC Breda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Zwolle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Telstar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Baronie	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	XerxesDZB (Zat)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Volendam	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	FC OSS	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Rijnsburgse Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	HSV ODIN 59	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Roda	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Jubbega	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Chevremont	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Kampong	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	Helmond Sport	1	0	0	1	-2	0
91	HV & CV Quick	1	0	0	1	-2	0
92	FC Emmen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
93	ONS Sneek	1	0	0	1	-2	0
94	Heracles	1	0	0	1	-2	0
95	Nieuwkoop	1	0	0	1	-2	0
96	Purmersteijn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
97	MVV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
98	Avanti '31	1	0	0	1	-3	0
99	VVV Venlo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
100	OSS '20	1	0	0	1	-4	0
101	ACV	1	0	0	1	-4	0
102	SVOD '22	1	0	0	1	-4	0
103	Zwaluw VFC	1	0	0	1	-4	0
104	Blauw Wit '34	1	0	0	1	-4	0
105	Bunde	1	0	0	1	-5	0
106	Groen Wit '62	1	0	0	1	-6	0
107	BOL	1	0	0	1	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	DEM	4	3	0	1	+4	9
2	RKAV Volendam	3	2	0	1	+7	6
3	Eemdijk	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Groene Ster	3	2	0	1	+6	6
5	Sparta Nijkerk	3	2	0	1	+3	6
6	Quick Boys	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Spakenburg	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	GVVV Veenendaal	3	2	0	1	-1	6
9	RKSV Nuenen	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	TEC	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	SVV Scheveningen	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	SJC Noordwijk	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Katwijk	1	1	0	0	+5	3
14	Kloetinge	2	1	0	1	+4	3
15	Heerenveen	1	1	0	0	+4	3
16	Blauw Geel	1	1	0	0	+4	3
17	De Treffers	1	1	0	0	+4	3
18	GVV Unitas	1	1	0	0	+4	3
19	Cambuur	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Hoogeveen	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Nijmegen	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Westlandia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Den Haag	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	De Graafschap	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	HHC	2	1	0	1	+1	3
26	Utrecht	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Hoek	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Feyenoord	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Barendrecht	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Hercules	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	AFC Amsterdam	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Excelsior Maassluis	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	FC Lisse	2	1	0	1	-1	3
34	Ijsselmeervogels	2	1	0	1	-1	3
35	Csv Apeldoorn	2	1	0	1	-1	3
36	DVS 33 Ermelo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
37	OJC Rosmalen	2	1	0	1	-3	3
38	Vvsb	2	0	1	1	-1	1
39	Hsc 21	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Den Bosch	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	AWC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	AGB	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Veensche Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	ADO '20	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Noordwijk	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Baronie	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	FC OSS	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Rijnsburgse Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Jubbega	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Kampong	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Willem II	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	HVCH	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	FC Eindhoven	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Nieuwkoop	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Purmersteijn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Olde Veste '54	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Koninklijke HFC	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Dordrecht	1	0	0	1	-3	0
59	Avanti '31	1	0	0	1	-3	0
60	ACV	1	0	0	1	-4	0
61	Zwaluw VFC	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Groningen	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	For Sittard	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Excelsior	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	UNA	3	2	0	1	-1	6
5	Hercules	2	1	1	0	+4	4
6	Gemert	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Excelsior Maassluis	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Almere City	1	1	0	0	+7	3
9	Nijmegen	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	VV Scherpenzeel	2	1	0	1	+3	3
11	Go Ahead Eagles	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Cambuur	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Dordrecht	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Willem II	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	OJC Rosmalen	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Koninklijke HFC	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	De Treffers	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Ijsselmeervogels	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	RKAV Volendam	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Noordwijk	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Meerssen	2	1	0	1	+1	3
22	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Olde Veste '54	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	HVCH	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Vitesse	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Quick Boys	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Den Haag	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	AFC Amsterdam	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	FC Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Harkemase Boys	2	1	0	1	+0	3
31	Sportlust '46	2	1	0	1	+0	3
32	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	Hoogeveen	2	1	0	1	-1	3
34	Staphorst	2	1	0	1	-2	3
35	Rijnvogels	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Dovo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Waalwijk	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	SteDoCo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Utrecht	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	SC Genemuiden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Berkum	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Hoek	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	TOGB	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Bon Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Kozakken Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Blauw Geel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	URK	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	NAC Breda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Zwolle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Telstar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	XerxesDZB (Zat)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Volendam	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	HSV ODIN 59	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Roda	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	GVV Unitas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Chevremont	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Helmond Sport	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	HV & CV Quick	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	FC Emmen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	De Graafschap	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	ONS Sneek	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Heracles	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Barendrecht	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	MVV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Westlandia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	VVV Venlo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
67	OSS '20	1	0	0	1	-4	0
68	SVOD '22	1	0	0	1	-4	0
69	Blauw Wit '34	1	0	0	1	-4	0
70	Eemdijk	1	0	0	1	-5	0
71	TEC	1	0	0	1	-5	0
72	Bunde	1	0	0	1	-5	0
73	Groen Wit '62	1	0	0	1	-6	0
74	BOL	1	0	0	1	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.