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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Man City

T S S S T

3–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

U T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 53%

67%

38%

Points per game

2,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

67%

52%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

3,36 xG 0,27

67% Possession 33%

17 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 4

1 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Aston Villa 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	21	16	3	2	+28	+1.7	51
2	Man United	23	14	4	5	+10	+0.1	46
3	Man City	21	14	3	4	+32	+3.4	45
4	Newcastle	22	10	11	1	+22	+0.7	41
5	Tottenham	23	12	3	8	+7	-1.8	39
6	Brighton	21	10	5	6	+11	+3.9	35
7	Fulham	23	10	5	8	+4	+0.3	35
8	Brentford	22	8	10	4	+7	+1.9	34
9	Chelsea	22	8	7	7	+1	+0.8	31
10	Liverpool	20	8	5	7	+6	-0.3	29
11	Aston Villa	21	8	4	9	-6	-0.1	28
12	Crystal Palace	22	6	7	9	-10	-4.6	25
13	Leicester	22	7	3	12	-2	+0.0	24
14	Nott'm Forest	22	6	6	10	-20	-0.9	24
15	Wolves	22	6	5	11	-14	-2.2	23
16	West Ham	22	5	5	12	-8	+1.9	20
17	Leeds	22	4	7	11	-10	-0.1	19
18	Everton	21	4	6	11	-12	-1.0	18
19	Bournemouth	22	4	6	12	-24	-1.6	18
20	Southampton	22	4	3	15	-22	-1.9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	11	9	1	1	+26	+3.6	28
2	Arsenal	10	8	2	0	+15	+2.4	26
3	Man United	11	8	2	1	+13	+2.1	26
4	Newcastle	11	6	5	0	+13	+0.0	23
5	Brentford	11	6	4	1	+13	+1.5	22
6	Liverpool	10	6	3	1	+14	-0.2	21
7	Tottenham	11	7	0	4	+7	+0.1	21
8	Fulham	12	6	3	3	+4	+1.0	21
9	Chelsea	10	5	3	2	+6	+0.7	18
10	Nott'm Forest	11	5	3	3	+2	-0.5	18
11	Brighton	10	5	2	3	+7	+1.3	17
12	Aston Villa	11	5	2	4	+2	-0.9	17
13	Crystal Palace	12	4	4	4	-5	-3.9	16
14	West Ham	11	4	2	5	-1	+1.9	14
15	Wolves	11	4	2	5	-5	+0.1	14
16	Leeds	11	3	4	4	-1	+0.8	13
17	Bournemouth	11	3	4	4	-1	-0.3	13
18	Leicester	11	3	3	5	+2	-0.8	12
19	Everton	11	3	2	6	-4	+0.8	11
20	Southampton	11	1	3	7	-9	-0.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	11	8	1	2	+13	-0.8	25
2	Man United	12	6	2	4	-3	-2.0	20
3	Newcastle	11	4	6	1	+9	+0.7	18
4	Brighton	11	5	3	3	+4	+2.6	18
5	Tottenham	12	5	3	4	+0	-2.0	18
6	Man City	10	5	2	3	+6	-0.1	17
7	Fulham	11	4	2	5	+0	-0.7	14
8	Chelsea	12	3	4	5	-5	+0.1	13
9	Leicester	11	4	0	7	-4	+0.9	12
10	Brentford	11	2	6	3	-6	+0.4	12
11	Aston Villa	10	3	2	5	-8	+0.8	11
12	Crystal Palace	10	2	3	5	-5	-0.7	9
13	Wolves	11	2	3	6	-9	-2.3	9
14	Southampton	11	3	0	8	-13	-1.5	9
15	Liverpool	10	2	2	6	-8	-0.1	8
16	Everton	10	1	4	5	-8	-1.7	7
17	West Ham	11	1	3	7	-7	+0.0	6
18	Leeds	11	1	3	7	-9	-0.9	6
19	Nott'm Forest	11	1	3	7	-22	-0.4	6
20	Bournemouth	11	1	2	8	-23	-1.3	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.