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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Aston Villa

T S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Man City

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 47%

44%

50%

Points per game

1,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

69%

75%

Both score Ø 69%

69%

Average goals

3,1

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,67 xG 1,03

44% Possession 56%

11 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 7. · Man City 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	11	3	1	+18	+16.6	36
2	Chelsea	16	10	4	2	+18	+11.3	34
3	Arsenal	16	8	6	2	+14	+13.0	30
4	Nott'm Forest	16	8	4	4	+2	+2.5	28
5	Man City	16	8	3	5	+5	+6.4	27
6	Bournemouth	16	7	4	5	+3	+12.4	25
7	Aston Villa	16	7	4	5	-1	+6.7	25
8	Fulham	16	6	6	4	+2	+1.3	24
9	Brighton	16	6	6	4	+1	-2.2	24
10	Tottenham	16	7	2	7	+17	+6.9	23
11	Brentford	16	7	2	7	+2	-2.6	23
12	Newcastle	16	6	5	5	+2	+4.8	23
13	Man United	16	6	4	6	+2	+0.1	22
14	West Ham	16	5	4	7	-8	-4.6	19
15	Crystal Palace	16	3	7	6	-4	-0.2	16
16	Everton	15	3	6	6	-7	-5.0	15
17	Leicester	16	3	5	8	-13	-17.9	14
18	Ipswich	16	2	6	8	-12	-17.9	12
19	Wolves	16	2	3	11	-16	-10.6	9
20	Southampton	16	1	2	13	-25	-20.9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	8	7	1	0	+12	+7.0	22
2	Liverpool	8	6	1	1	+10	+9.6	19
3	Arsenal	8	5	3	0	+11	+11.5	18
4	Man City	8	5	1	2	+4	+7.5	16
5	Chelsea	8	4	3	1	+5	+7.6	15
6	Aston Villa	8	4	3	1	+4	+9.5	15
7	Newcastle	8	4	2	2	+4	+4.6	14
8	Bournemouth	8	4	2	2	+4	+7.4	14
9	Nott'm Forest	8	4	2	2	+3	+4.1	14
10	Fulham	8	4	2	2	+1	+0.6	14
11	Tottenham	8	4	1	3	+9	+5.0	13
12	Man United	8	4	1	3	+2	+0.7	13
13	Brighton	8	3	4	1	+1	+1.3	13
14	West Ham	8	3	1	4	-4	-2.2	10
15	Everton	7	2	3	2	+1	-2.8	9
16	Leicester	8	2	3	3	-1	-7.6	9
17	Crystal Palace	8	1	4	3	-4	+1.2	7
18	Ipswich	8	0	4	4	-6	-5.7	4
19	Wolves	8	1	1	6	-8	-5.7	4
20	Southampton	8	1	1	6	-14	-12.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	8	6	1	1	+13	+3.7	19
2	Liverpool	7	5	2	0	+8	+7.0	17
3	Nott'm Forest	8	4	2	2	-1	-1.6	14
4	Arsenal	8	3	3	2	+3	+1.4	12
5	Man City	8	3	2	3	+1	-1.1	11
6	Brighton	8	3	2	3	+0	-3.5	11
7	Bournemouth	8	3	2	3	-1	+5.0	11
8	Tottenham	8	3	1	4	+8	+1.9	10
9	Fulham	8	2	4	2	+1	+0.7	10
10	Aston Villa	8	3	1	4	-5	-2.8	10
11	Crystal Palace	8	2	3	3	+0	-1.4	9
12	Man United	8	2	3	3	+0	-0.6	9
13	Newcastle	8	2	3	3	-2	+0.1	9
14	West Ham	8	2	3	3	-4	-2.3	9
15	Ipswich	8	2	2	4	-6	-12.2	8
16	Everton	8	1	3	4	-8	-2.2	6
17	Wolves	8	1	2	5	-8	-4.9	5
18	Leicester	8	1	2	5	-12	-10.2	5
19	Brentford	8	0	1	7	-10	-9.6	1
20	Southampton	8	0	1	7	-11	-8.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.