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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Estrela

S T T S T

0–1

Full-time

AVS

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela AVS

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

1,7

4,0

Scored

0,5

0,7

Conceded

1,2

3,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-2,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 18%

22%

13%

Points per game

0,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

31%

41%

Both score Ø 44%

34%

53%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,89 xG 1,41

49% Possession 51%

11 Shots 18

3 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 7

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 15. · AVS 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	33	24	7	2	+59	+47.8	79
2	Benfica	33	25	4	4	+56	+47.8	79
3	Porto	32	20	5	7	+31	+23.3	65
4	Sp Braga	33	19	8	6	+25	+16.4	65
5	Guimaraes	32	14	12	6	+13	+11.7	54
6	Santa Clara	33	16	6	11	+3	+11.1	54
7	Casa Pia	33	12	9	12	-4	-10.7	45
8	Famalicao	33	11	11	11	+4	-8.1	44
9	Estoril	32	11	9	12	-9	-16.1	42
10	Rio Ave	33	9	10	14	-16	-17.6	37
11	Moreirense	32	9	9	14	-11	-5.7	36
12	Arouca	33	8	11	14	-17	-6.6	35
13	Nacional	33	9	7	17	-15	-8.8	34
14	Gil Vicente	33	8	9	16	-13	-8.4	33
15	Estrela	32	7	8	17	-21	-15.5	29
16	Farense	32	5	9	18	-21	-18.5	24
17	Boavista	32	6	6	20	-31	-20.7	24
18	AVS	32	4	12	16	-33	-21.4	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	17	14	2	1	+40	+31.2	44
2	Sp Lisbon	16	13	2	1	+25	+21.7	41
3	Porto	16	12	3	1	+25	+22.6	39
4	Guimaraes	16	9	5	2	+11	+8.4	32
5	Santa Clara	17	10	2	5	+4	+12.5	32
6	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+14	+15.4	31
7	Casa Pia	17	8	4	5	+3	-1.5	28
8	Famalicao	16	6	7	3	+7	+5.5	25
9	Rio Ave	16	6	7	3	+1	-2.7	25
10	Moreirense	16	6	7	3	+1	-1.7	25
11	Nacional	17	7	3	7	-4	-2.3	24
12	Estoril	16	6	4	6	-4	-6.2	22
13	Gil Vicente	17	5	5	7	-1	+0.3	20
14	Estrela	16	5	4	7	-5	-4.7	19
15	Arouca	16	4	6	6	-6	-3.0	18
16	AVS	16	3	6	7	-10	-9.8	15
17	Farense	16	3	2	11	-13	-3.2	11
18	Boavista	16	1	3	12	-22	-7.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	11	5	1	+34	+26.1	38
2	Benfica	16	11	2	3	+16	+16.6	35
3	Sp Braga	17	10	4	3	+11	+1.0	34
4	Porto	16	8	2	6	+6	+0.7	26
5	Guimaraes	16	5	7	4	+2	+3.3	22
6	Santa Clara	16	6	4	6	-1	-1.4	22
7	Estoril	16	5	5	6	-5	-9.9	20
8	Famalicao	17	5	4	8	-3	-13.6	19
9	Boavista	16	5	3	8	-9	-13.2	18
10	Casa Pia	16	4	5	7	-7	-9.2	17
11	Arouca	17	4	5	8	-11	-3.6	17
12	Farense	16	2	7	7	-8	-15.3	13
13	Gil Vicente	16	3	4	9	-12	-8.7	13
14	Rio Ave	17	3	3	11	-17	-14.9	12
15	Moreirense	16	3	2	11	-12	-3.9	11
16	Nacional	16	2	4	10	-11	-6.5	10
17	Estrela	16	2	4	10	-16	-10.8	10
18	AVS	16	1	6	9	-23	-11.5	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.