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Bundesliga

Referee: D Aytekin

Leverkusen

S U U S U

2–4

Full-time

Dortmund

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

4,3

Scored

1,2

2,5

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 53%

59%

47%

Points per game

2,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

59%

69%

Both score Ø 69%

69%

Average goals

3,3

3,5

Scored

2,1

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,20 xG 1,16

62% Possession 38%

19 Shots 9

10 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

12 Corners 0

5 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 2. · Dortmund 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	33	24	7	2	+63	+54.4	79
2	Leverkusen	32	19	11	2	+31	+22.1	68
3	Ein Frankfurt	32	16	8	8	+20	+14.4	56
4	Freiburg	33	16	7	10	-2	+2.5	55
5	Dortmund	32	15	6	11	+15	+19.2	51
6	Mainz	33	14	9	10	+12	-0.6	51
7	RB Leipzig	33	13	12	8	+6	-7.2	51
8	Werder Bremen	33	13	9	11	-6	+2.2	48
9	M'gladbach	33	13	6	14	-1	-10.9	45
10	Stuttgart	32	12	8	12	+6	+11.5	44
11	Augsburg	32	11	10	11	-11	-12.3	43
12	Wolfsburg	33	10	10	13	+1	-5.3	40
13	Union Berlin	33	9	11	13	-15	-10.4	38
14	Hoffenheim	33	7	11	15	-18	-13.6	32
15	St Pauli	32	8	7	17	-11	-10.2	31
16	Heidenheim	33	8	5	20	-24	-15.1	29
17	Holstein Kiel	33	6	7	20	-28	-19.2	25
18	Bochum	33	4	8	21	-38	-21.4	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	14	2	1	+37	+34.8	44
2	Leverkusen	16	10	4	2	+16	+15.3	34
3	Dortmund	16	10	3	3	+22	+16.2	33
4	Ein Frankfurt	16	10	3	3	+19	+17.0	33
5	RB Leipzig	16	8	6	2	+11	+3.2	30
6	Freiburg	16	9	3	4	+8	+2.0	30
7	Mainz	16	6	7	3	+6	+5.0	25
8	M'gladbach	16	7	3	6	+4	-0.8	24
9	Augsburg	16	6	5	5	-1	+2.6	23
10	Union Berlin	17	5	7	5	-3	+1.4	22
11	Werder Bremen	17	5	6	6	-5	+4.9	21
12	Stuttgart	16	6	2	8	+4	+12.0	20
13	Hoffenheim	16	4	5	7	-7	-3.4	17
14	Wolfsburg	17	3	7	7	-3	-0.3	16
15	St Pauli	16	3	5	8	-7	-1.0	14
16	Holstein Kiel	17	4	2	11	-17	-7.0	14
17	Bochum	17	3	4	10	-17	-3.5	13
18	Heidenheim	16	3	2	11	-17	-7.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	10	5	1	+26	+19.6	35
2	Leverkusen	16	9	7	0	+15	+6.8	34
3	Werder Bremen	16	8	3	5	-1	-2.7	27
4	Mainz	17	8	2	7	+6	-5.6	26
5	Freiburg	17	7	4	6	-10	+0.5	25
6	Wolfsburg	16	7	3	6	+4	-5.1	24
7	Stuttgart	16	6	6	4	+2	-0.5	24
8	Ein Frankfurt	16	6	5	5	+1	-2.6	23
9	M'gladbach	17	6	3	8	-5	-10.1	21
10	RB Leipzig	17	5	6	6	-5	-10.4	21
11	Augsburg	16	5	5	6	-10	-15.0	20
12	Heidenheim	17	5	3	9	-7	-7.9	18
13	Dortmund	16	5	3	8	-7	+2.9	18
14	St Pauli	16	5	2	9	-4	-9.1	17
15	Union Berlin	16	4	4	8	-12	-11.8	16
16	Hoffenheim	17	3	6	8	-11	-10.2	15
17	Holstein Kiel	16	2	5	9	-11	-12.1	11
18	Bochum	16	1	4	11	-21	-17.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.