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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Newcastle

T S S S S

4–1

Full-time

Man United

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 30/31 matches

Win Ø 43%

53%

32%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

63%

55%

Both score Ø 48%

53%

42%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,17 xG 0,72

48% Possession 52%

13 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 7. · Man United 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	32	23	7	2	+43	+42.6	76
2	Arsenal	32	17	12	3	+30	+23.6	63
3	Nott'm Forest	32	17	6	9	+13	-0.7	57
4	Man City	32	16	7	9	+20	+16.0	55
5	Chelsea	32	15	9	8	+17	+18.4	54
6	Aston Villa	32	15	9	8	+3	+6.3	54
7	Newcastle	30	16	5	9	+13	+13.2	53
8	Fulham	31	13	9	9	+5	+4.6	48
9	Brighton	32	12	12	8	+2	+5.3	48
10	Bournemouth	31	12	9	10	+11	+16.4	45
11	Brentford	32	12	7	13	+4	-1.1	43
12	Crystal Palace	31	11	10	10	+1	+6.2	43
13	Man United	31	10	8	13	-4	-4.8	38
14	Everton	32	8	14	10	-4	-4.2	38
15	Tottenham	32	11	4	17	+11	-0.7	37
16	Wolves	32	10	5	17	-14	-12.4	35
17	West Ham	32	9	8	15	-18	-11.5	35
18	Ipswich	32	4	9	19	-34	-35.0	21
19	Leicester	32	4	6	22	-45	-36.2	18
20	Southampton	32	2	4	26	-54	-45.9	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	13	2	1	+22	+20.9	41
2	Arsenal	16	10	5	1	+18	+17.1	35
3	Man City	16	10	3	3	+16	+15.4	33
4	Chelsea	16	9	5	2	+13	+16.0	32
5	Nott'm Forest	16	9	4	3	+13	+3.6	31
6	Aston Villa	16	8	7	1	+8	+13.3	31
7	Newcastle	14	8	2	4	+8	+6.2	26
8	Fulham	16	7	5	4	+2	+1.3	26
9	Brentford	16	7	4	5	+3	+3.6	25
10	Brighton	16	6	7	3	+2	+6.6	25
11	Tottenham	16	6	3	7	+6	+0.5	21
12	Bournemouth	15	6	3	6	+5	+9.5	21
13	Man United	16	6	3	7	-4	-0.1	21
14	Everton	16	4	8	4	+3	+0.7	20
15	Crystal Palace	16	5	5	6	-4	+6.5	20
16	West Ham	16	5	3	8	-10	-8.6	18
17	Wolves	16	5	2	9	-6	-5.7	17
18	Leicester	16	2	3	11	-22	-14.4	9
19	Ipswich	16	1	4	11	-23	-13.9	7
20	Southampton	16	1	2	13	-32	-25.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	10	5	1	+21	+21.8	35
2	Arsenal	16	7	7	2	+12	+6.5	28
3	Newcastle	16	8	3	5	+5	+7.1	27
4	Nott'm Forest	16	8	2	6	+0	-4.3	26
5	Bournemouth	16	6	6	4	+6	+6.9	24
6	Crystal Palace	15	6	5	4	+5	-0.3	23
7	Brighton	16	6	5	5	+0	-1.4	23
8	Aston Villa	16	7	2	7	-5	-7.0	23
9	Chelsea	16	6	4	6	+4	+2.4	22
10	Man City	16	6	4	6	+4	+0.6	22
11	Fulham	15	6	4	5	+3	+3.2	22
12	Brentford	16	5	3	8	+1	-4.7	18
13	Everton	16	4	6	6	-7	-4.8	18
14	Wolves	16	5	3	8	-8	-6.8	18
15	Man United	15	4	5	6	+0	-4.6	17
16	West Ham	16	4	5	7	-8	-2.9	17
17	Tottenham	16	5	1	10	+5	-1.2	16
18	Ipswich	16	3	5	8	-11	-21.1	14
19	Leicester	16	2	3	11	-23	-21.8	9
20	Southampton	16	1	2	13	-22	-20.6	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.