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Ligue 1

Referee: J Pignard

Marseille

T U T S S

6–1

Full-time

Toulouse

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 44%

60%

27%

Points per game

2,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

53%

67%

Both score Ø 57%

53%

60%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

0,9

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

51% Possession 49%

13 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 6

14 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 4. · Toulouse 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	14	2	0	+35	44
2	Lens	15	11	3	1	+16	36
3	Rennes	16	9	4	3	+15	31
4	Marseille	15	9	3	3	+13	30
5	Monaco	16	9	3	4	+9	30
6	Lille	16	9	2	5	+6	29
7	Lorient	16	8	4	4	+3	28
8	Lyon	16	7	3	6	+7	24
9	Nice	15	5	5	5	-2	20
10	Reims	16	4	8	4	-3	20
11	Clermont	16	5	4	7	-6	19
12	Montpellier	16	5	2	9	-3	17
13	Toulouse	15	4	4	7	-7	16
14	Troyes	16	3	6	7	-5	15
15	Ajaccio	16	4	3	9	-9	15
16	Nantes	16	2	8	6	-7	14
17	Brest	16	3	4	9	-14	13
18	Auxerre	16	3	4	9	-18	13
19	Strasbourg	16	1	8	7	-10	11
20	Angers	16	2	2	12	-20	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lens	8	8	0	0	+12	24
2	Paris SG	8	7	1	0	+13	22
3	Rennes	8	7	0	1	+15	21
4	Lyon	8	5	2	1	+10	17
5	Marseille	8	5	1	2	+5	16
6	Lille	8	5	1	2	+0	16
7	Lorient	8	4	1	3	+1	13
8	Toulouse	8	3	3	2	-1	12
9	Reims	8	3	3	2	-1	12
10	Monaco	8	3	2	3	+0	11
11	Nantes	7	2	4	1	+2	10
12	Montpellier	8	3	1	4	-2	10
13	Clermont	8	3	1	4	-7	10
14	Troyes	8	1	6	1	-1	9
15	Auxerre	8	2	3	3	-3	9
16	Nice	7	2	2	3	-3	8
17	Ajaccio	8	2	1	5	-6	7
18	Brest	8	1	3	4	-10	6
19	Strasbourg	8	0	5	3	-6	5
20	Angers	8	1	1	6	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	7	1	0	+22	22
2	Monaco	8	6	1	1	+9	19
3	Lorient	8	4	3	1	+2	15
4	Marseille	7	4	2	1	+8	14
5	Lille	8	4	1	3	+6	13
6	Lens	7	3	3	1	+4	12
7	Nice	8	3	3	2	+1	12
8	Rennes	8	2	4	2	+0	10
9	Clermont	8	2	3	3	+1	9
10	Reims	8	1	5	2	-2	8
11	Ajaccio	8	2	2	4	-3	8
12	Montpellier	8	2	1	5	-1	7
13	Lyon	8	2	1	5	-3	7
14	Brest	8	2	1	5	-4	7
15	Troyes	8	2	0	6	-4	6
16	Strasbourg	8	1	3	4	-4	6
17	Toulouse	7	1	1	5	-6	4
18	Nantes	9	0	4	5	-9	4
19	Angers	8	1	1	6	-11	4
20	Auxerre	8	1	1	6	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.