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Ligue 1

Referee: C Turpin

Lyon

T S T S U

3–2

Full-time

Montpellier

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,8

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 43%

50%

36%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

50%

46%

Both score Ø 54%

54%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

65% Possession 35%

23 Shots 10

13 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 11

8 Corners 6

2 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lyon 3. · Montpellier 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	27	24	2	1	+68	74
2	Lille	29	17	6	6	+21	57
3	Lyon	28	14	8	6	+14	50
4	Marseille	28	14	5	9	+9	47
5	St Etienne	29	13	7	9	+7	46
6	Reims	28	10	13	5	+3	43
7	Montpellier	28	10	12	6	+7	42
8	Nice	29	11	8	10	-8	41
9	Rennes	27	11	7	9	+3	40
10	Strasbourg	29	9	12	8	+10	39
11	Nimes	28	10	7	11	-2	37
12	Angers	29	8	12	9	+0	36
13	Bordeaux	28	8	9	11	-3	33
14	Toulouse	29	7	11	11	-15	32
15	Nantes	27	8	7	12	-3	31
16	Monaco	29	7	9	13	-14	30
17	Amiens	29	8	5	16	-19	29
18	Guingamp	29	5	7	17	-32	22
19	Dijon	29	5	6	18	-25	21
20	Caen	29	3	11	15	-21	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	14	0	0	+45	42
2	Lille	15	9	4	2	+16	31
3	Marseille	14	9	3	2	+16	30
4	Lyon	14	9	3	2	+15	30
5	St Etienne	14	9	2	3	+12	29
6	Rennes	14	7	4	3	+8	25
7	Reims	14	6	6	2	+5	24
8	Nice	14	7	3	4	+0	24
9	Bordeaux	14	6	5	3	+4	23
10	Montpellier	14	5	6	3	+7	21
11	Strasbourg	14	5	6	3	+6	21
12	Angers	15	5	6	4	+3	21
13	Nimes	14	5	5	4	+5	20
14	Nantes	13	5	4	4	+7	19
15	Amiens	14	6	1	7	-3	19
16	Toulouse	14	3	7	4	-3	16
17	Monaco	15	3	5	7	-10	14
18	Guingamp	15	3	4	8	-9	13
19	Dijon	14	3	3	8	-13	12
20	Caen	15	2	5	8	-11	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	10	2	1	+23	32
2	Lille	14	8	2	4	+5	26
3	Montpellier	14	5	6	3	+0	21
4	Lyon	14	5	5	4	-1	20
5	Reims	14	4	7	3	-2	19
6	Strasbourg	15	4	6	5	+4	18
7	St Etienne	15	4	5	6	-5	17
8	Nimes	14	5	2	7	-7	17
9	Marseille	14	5	2	7	-7	17
10	Nice	15	4	5	6	-8	17
11	Monaco	14	4	4	6	-4	16
12	Toulouse	15	4	4	7	-12	16
13	Angers	14	3	6	5	-3	15
14	Rennes	13	4	3	6	-5	15
15	Nantes	14	3	3	8	-10	12
16	Bordeaux	14	2	4	8	-7	10
17	Amiens	15	2	4	9	-16	10
18	Caen	14	1	6	7	-10	9
19	Dijon	15	2	3	10	-12	9
20	Guingamp	14	2	3	9	-23	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.