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Ligue 1
Referee: J Pignard
Lens
S T S S T
4–1
Full-time
Metz
T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens Metz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,0
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,5
3,2
Scored
1,5
0,8
Conceded
1,0
2,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-1,5
This season — Ligue 1 · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 30%
50%
10%
Points per game
1,8
0,6
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
40%
70%
Both score Ø 55%
50%
60%
Average goals
2,7
3,3
Scored
1,6
1,1
Conceded
1,1
2,2
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-1,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

56% Possession 44%
11 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 6
1 Offside 0
9 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lens 3. · Metz 19.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 10 9 0 1 +14 27
2 Nice 10 6 2 2 +13 20
3 Lens 10 5 3 2 +5 18
4 Marseille 9 5 2 2 +7 17
5 Angers 11 4 5 2 +4 17
6 Nantes 11 5 2 4 +4 17
7 Lyon 11 4 4 3 +2 16
8 Rennes 10 4 3 3 +6 15
9 Lille 11 4 3 4 -2 15
10 Strasbourg 10 4 2 4 +3 14
11 Monaco 10 4 2 4 +1 14
12 Lorient 10 3 5 2 -2 14
13 Montpellier 10 3 4 3 +1 13
14 Clermont 11 3 4 4 -8 13
15 Reims 10 2 5 3 -1 11
16 Troyes 10 2 3 5 -5 9
17 Bordeaux 10 1 5 4 -9 8
18 Brest 11 0 6 5 -8 6
19 Metz 10 1 3 6 -11 6
20 St Etienne 11 0 5 6 -14 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lens Metz
1–0 W. Saïd
14′
20′
🟨 Vincent Pajot
33′
N. de Préville 1–1
2–1 W. Saïd
C. Doucouré
37′
39′
🟨 Habib Maïga
Half-time 2–1
53′
🟨 Kévin N'Doram
59′
🔁 P. Sarr
↦ V. Pajot
G. Kakuta 🔁
↦ W. Saïd
62′
Jean-Louis Leca 🟨
65′
67′
ℹ️ Pape Matar Sarr
VAR: Goal cancelled
Y. Cahuzac 🔁
↦ F. Sotoca
80′
I. Ganago 🔁
↦ A. Kalimuendo-Muinga
80′
80′
🔁 O. Nguette
↦ N. de Préville
80′
🔁 A. Mbengue
↦ K. NDoram
3–1 I. Ganago
C. Doucouré
83′
Ignatius Ganago 🟨
87′
C. Jean 🔁
↦ I. Ganago
87′
88′
🔁 M. Caillard
↦ A. Oukidja
4–1 P. Frankowski
J. Clauss
90′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Lens

3-4-2-1
16 J. Leca G
11 J. Clauss M
24 J. Gradit D
4 K. Danso D
14 F. Medina D
8 S. Fofana M
29 P. Frankowski M
28 C. Doucouré M
22 W. Saïd F
7 F. Sotoca F
15 A. Kalimuendo-Muinga F
Bench (9)
10 G. Kakuta
18 Y. Cahuzac
9 I. Ganago
25 C. Jean
3 D. Machado
5 C. Wooh
27 C. Boli
1 W. Fariñez
20 David Costa

Coach: F. Haise

Metz

5-3-2
16 A. Oukidja G
17 T. Delaine D
5 Jemerson D
3 M. Udol D
2 D. Bronn D
18 F. Centonze D
14 V. Pajot M
10 F. Boulaya F
19 H. Maïga M
6 K. N'Doram M
9 N. de Préville F
Bench (9)
15 P. Sarr
11 O. Nguette
33 A. Mbengue
30 M. Caillard
22 S. Alakouch
21 A. Bassi
8 B. Traoré
20 M. Gueye
26 P. Yade

Coach: F. Antonetti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,64
U
3,88
B
5,47
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,85
U2,5
1,97
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Pignard · 145 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.