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Bundesliga

Referee: T Stieler

Leverkusen

S S S S S

5–1

Full-time

Freiburg

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

0,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 54%

57%

50%

Points per game

2,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

71%

64%

Both score Ø 68%

86%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

2,3

1,4

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,91 xG 0,74

67% Possession 33%

20 Shots 8

12 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

4 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 2. · Freiburg 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	3	1	+34	+25.6	36
2	Leverkusen	14	8	5	1	+12	+10.7	29
3	Ein Frankfurt	15	8	3	4	+12	+6.2	27
4	RB Leipzig	15	8	3	4	+4	-2.7	27
5	Mainz	15	7	4	4	+8	-0.8	25
6	Werder Bremen	15	7	4	4	+1	+0.7	25
7	M'gladbach	15	7	3	5	+5	+0.9	24
8	Freiburg	14	7	3	4	+1	+5.5	24
9	Stuttgart	15	6	5	4	+4	+6.0	23
10	Dortmund	14	6	4	4	+4	+2.8	22
11	Wolfsburg	14	6	3	5	+6	-2.4	21
12	Union Berlin	15	4	5	6	-5	-3.9	17
13	Augsburg	15	4	4	7	-15	-4.9	16
14	St Pauli	15	4	2	9	-7	-6.2	14
15	Hoffenheim	15	3	5	7	-8	-6.6	14
16	Heidenheim	14	3	1	10	-13	-3.7	10
17	Holstein Kiel	15	2	2	11	-19	-11.7	8
18	Bochum	14	0	3	11	-24	-15.6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	8	6	2	0	+12	+6.5	20
2	Bayern Munich	7	6	1	0	+18	+14.5	19
3	M'gladbach	8	5	1	2	+7	+3.7	16
4	Freiburg	7	5	1	1	+5	+5.2	16
5	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	2	1	+8	+7.0	14
6	Stuttgart	8	4	2	2	+6	+9.5	14
7	Leverkusen	7	4	2	1	+5	+7.4	14
8	RB Leipzig	7	4	2	1	+4	+2.2	14
9	Augsburg	8	4	2	2	+2	+5.6	14
10	Union Berlin	7	3	3	1	+2	+2.1	12
11	Mainz	8	3	2	3	+0	+1.7	11
12	Hoffenheim	8	3	1	4	-3	-0.2	10
13	Werder Bremen	7	2	3	2	-2	-0.9	9
14	Wolfsburg	7	2	2	3	-2	-2.2	8
15	Holstein Kiel	8	2	0	6	-11	-6.0	6
16	St Pauli	7	1	2	4	-6	-0.8	5
17	Heidenheim	7	1	1	5	-8	-0.4	4
18	Bochum	6	0	2	4	-10	-5.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	5	2	1	+16	+11.1	17
2	Werder Bremen	8	5	1	2	+3	+1.6	16
3	Leverkusen	7	4	3	0	+7	+3.3	15
4	Mainz	7	4	2	1	+8	-2.4	14
5	Wolfsburg	7	4	1	2	+8	-0.2	13
6	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	1	3	+4	-0.8	13
7	RB Leipzig	8	4	1	3	+0	-4.9	13
8	St Pauli	8	3	0	5	-1	-5.4	9
9	Stuttgart	7	2	3	2	-2	-3.5	9
10	M'gladbach	7	2	2	3	-2	-2.8	8
11	Freiburg	7	2	2	3	-4	+0.3	8
12	Heidenheim	7	2	0	5	-5	-3.3	6
13	Union Berlin	8	1	2	5	-7	-5.9	5
14	Hoffenheim	7	0	4	3	-5	-6.3	4
15	Holstein Kiel	7	0	2	5	-8	-5.7	2
16	Dortmund	6	0	2	4	-8	-3.7	2
17	Augsburg	7	0	2	5	-17	-10.5	2
18	Bochum	8	0	1	7	-14	-10.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.