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Premier League

Referee: S Barrott

Nott'm Forest

T T S T S

2–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 47%

47%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

47%

67%

Both score Ø 57%

47%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,1

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,78 xG 0,42

50% Possession 50%

17 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 5. · Aston Villa 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	11	3	1	+18	+16.6	36
2	Chelsea	15	9	4	2	+17	+10.6	31
3	Arsenal	16	8	6	2	+14	+13.0	30
4	Man City	15	8	3	4	+6	+7.5	27
5	Nott'm Forest	15	7	4	4	+1	+1.1	25
6	Aston Villa	15	7	4	4	+0	+8.0	25
7	Brighton	15	6	6	3	+3	-0.8	24
8	Bournemouth	15	7	3	5	+3	+12.5	24
9	Fulham	16	6	6	4	+2	+1.3	24
10	Brentford	15	7	2	6	+3	-2.0	23
11	Newcastle	16	6	5	5	+2	+4.8	23
12	Tottenham	15	6	2	7	+12	+5.3	20
13	Man United	15	5	4	6	+1	-1.1	19
14	West Ham	15	5	3	7	-8	-4.6	18
15	Everton	15	3	6	6	-7	-5.0	15
16	Leicester	16	3	5	8	-13	-17.9	14
17	Crystal Palace	15	2	7	6	-6	-1.5	13
18	Ipswich	16	2	6	8	-12	-17.9	12
19	Wolves	16	2	3	11	-16	-10.6	9
20	Southampton	15	1	2	12	-20	-19.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	8	7	1	0	+12	+7.0	22
2	Liverpool	8	6	1	1	+10	+9.6	19
3	Arsenal	8	5	3	0	+11	+11.5	18
4	Man City	7	5	1	1	+5	+8.6	16
5	Aston Villa	8	4	3	1	+4	+9.5	15
6	Newcastle	8	4	2	2	+4	+4.6	14
7	Fulham	8	4	2	2	+1	+0.6	14
8	Tottenham	8	4	1	3	+9	+5.0	13
9	Bournemouth	7	4	1	2	+4	+7.5	13
10	Brighton	7	3	4	0	+3	+2.7	13
11	Man United	8	4	1	3	+2	+0.7	13
12	Chelsea	7	3	3	1	+4	+7.0	12
13	Nott'm Forest	7	3	2	2	+2	+2.7	11
14	West Ham	8	3	1	4	-4	-2.2	10
15	Everton	7	2	3	2	+1	-2.8	9
16	Leicester	8	2	3	3	-1	-7.6	9
17	Crystal Palace	8	1	4	3	-4	+1.2	7
18	Ipswich	8	0	4	4	-6	-5.7	4
19	Wolves	8	1	1	6	-8	-5.7	4
20	Southampton	7	1	1	5	-9	-10.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	8	6	1	1	+13	+3.7	19
2	Liverpool	7	5	2	0	+8	+7.0	17
3	Nott'm Forest	8	4	2	2	-1	-1.6	14
4	Arsenal	8	3	3	2	+3	+1.4	12
5	Man City	8	3	2	3	+1	-1.1	11
6	Brighton	8	3	2	3	+0	-3.5	11
7	Bournemouth	8	3	2	3	-1	+5.0	11
8	Fulham	8	2	4	2	+1	+0.7	10
9	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	-4	-1.5	10
10	Newcastle	8	2	3	3	-2	+0.1	9
11	West Ham	7	2	2	3	-4	-2.4	8
12	Ipswich	8	2	2	4	-6	-12.2	8
13	Tottenham	7	2	1	4	+3	+0.3	7
14	Man United	7	1	3	3	-1	-1.7	6
15	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-2	-2.7	6
16	Everton	8	1	3	4	-8	-2.2	6
17	Wolves	8	1	2	5	-8	-4.9	5
18	Leicester	8	1	2	5	-12	-10.2	5
19	Brentford	7	0	1	6	-9	-9.0	1
20	Southampton	8	0	1	7	-11	-8.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.