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Ligue 1

Referee: F Letexier

Lille

S S U S S

4–0

Full-time

Lens

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Lens

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

0,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

0,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%

17 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Lille 3. · Lens 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	5	0	2	+13	15
2	Rennes	7	4	3	0	+7	15
3	Lille	6	4	2	0	+7	14
4	Lens	6	4	1	1	+4	13
5	Nice	7	4	1	2	+1	13
6	Marseille	7	3	3	1	+2	12
7	Montpellier	7	3	2	2	+4	11
8	Monaco	7	3	2	2	+1	11
9	Lyon	7	2	4	1	+3	10
10	St Etienne	7	3	1	3	-1	10
11	Angers	7	3	1	3	-7	10
12	Bordeaux	7	2	3	2	+2	9
13	Brest	7	3	0	4	-4	9
14	Metz	7	2	2	3	+0	8
15	Nantes	7	2	2	3	-1	8
16	Nimes	7	2	2	3	-2	8
17	Lorient	7	2	1	4	-2	7
18	Strasbourg	7	1	0	6	-10	3
19	Reims	7	0	2	5	-7	2
20	Dijon	7	0	2	5	-10	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Montpellier	4	3	0	1	+5	9
2	Lens	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Monaco	4	2	2	0	+2	8
4	Nantes	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Lille	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Rennes	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	Angers	4	2	1	1	+0	7
8	Paris SG	3	2	0	1	+5	6
9	Bordeaux	4	1	3	0	+3	6
10	Metz	3	2	0	1	+2	6
11	Brest	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	St Etienne	4	2	0	2	-1	6
13	Nice	3	2	0	1	-1	6
14	Lyon	3	1	2	0	+3	5
15	Marseille	4	1	2	1	+0	5
16	Lorient	3	1	1	1	+1	4
17	Nimes	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Strasbourg	4	1	0	3	-5	3
19	Dijon	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Reims	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	3	0	1	+8	9
2	Rennes	4	2	2	0	+5	8
3	Lille	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Nice	4	2	1	1	+2	7
5	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Lyon	4	1	2	1	+0	5
7	Lens	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	St Etienne	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Nimes	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Bordeaux	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Monaco	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Lorient	4	1	0	3	-3	3
13	Brest	4	1	0	3	-5	3
14	Angers	3	1	0	2	-7	3
15	Montpellier	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Reims	4	0	2	2	-2	2
17	Metz	4	0	2	2	-2	2
18	Nantes	4	0	1	3	-4	1
19	Strasbourg	3	0	0	3	-5	0
20	Dijon	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.