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Premier League

Referee: J Moss

Leicester

T S S S T

0–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leicester Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

2,0

2,3

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,7

This season — Premier League · 4/3 matches

Win Ø 88%

75%

100%

Points per game

2,3

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

4,8

4,3

Scored

3,0

3,7

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%

11 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 7

2 Offside 3

18 Free kicks against 18

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leicester 4. · Aston Villa 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Everton	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Liverpool	5	3	1	1	+0	10
3	Aston Villa	3	3	0	0	+9	9
4	Leicester	4	3	0	1	+5	9
5	Arsenal	5	3	0	2	+2	9
6	Tottenham	5	2	2	1	+7	8
7	Chelsea	5	2	2	1	+4	8
8	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+4	7
9	Leeds	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Man City	4	2	1	1	+0	7
11	Southampton	5	2	1	2	-1	7
12	Newcastle	5	2	1	2	-2	7
13	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	-2	7
14	Man United	4	2	0	2	-3	6
15	Wolves	4	2	0	2	-3	6
16	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-2	4
17	Sheffield United	5	0	1	4	-5	1
18	West Brom	4	0	1	3	-8	1
19	Fulham	5	0	1	4	-8	1
20	Burnley	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Everton	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+2	4
6	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+2	3
9	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Leicester	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Wolves	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Man City	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	-4	3
14	Tottenham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Sheffield United	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Brighton	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Fulham	2	0	0	2	-6	0
20	Man United	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Man United	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Everton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	West Ham	3	1	1	1	+2	4
6	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Man City	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Brighton	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-3	4
12	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Arsenal	3	1	0	2	+0	3
14	Leeds	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-2	3
16	Wolves	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Fulham	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	West Brom	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.