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Serie A

Referee: E Feliciani

Salernitana

T U T T T

1–2

Full-time

Atalanta

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salernitana Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,8

Conceded

2,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 34/33 matches

Win Ø 29%

52%

Points per game

0,4

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

65%

64%

Both score Ø 53%

53%

52%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

2,1

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,4

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,50 xG 1,86

31% Possession 69%

9 Shots 17

2 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 7

0 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Salernitana 20. · Atalanta 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	35	28	5	2	+62	+45.6	89
2	Milan	35	21	8	6	+25	+16.5	71
3	Juventus	35	18	12	5	+21	+24.4	66
4	Bologna	35	17	13	5	+22	+11.2	64
5	Roma	35	17	9	9	+20	+12.3	60
6	Atalanta	33	17	6	10	+24	+11.5	57
7	Lazio	35	17	5	13	+8	+4.6	56
8	Fiorentina	34	14	8	12	+12	+3.3	50
9	Napoli	34	13	11	10	+9	+21.2	50
10	Torino	35	11	14	10	+0	+4.1	47
11	Monza	35	11	12	12	-8	-13.5	45
12	Genoa	35	10	13	12	-2	-6.5	43
13	Lecce	35	8	13	14	-18	-8.4	37
14	Verona	35	8	10	17	-13	-12.6	34
15	Cagliari	35	7	12	16	-23	-11.1	33
16	Frosinone	35	7	11	17	-20	-14.0	32
17	Empoli	35	8	8	19	-24	-17.6	32
18	Udinese	34	4	17	13	-19	-10.9	29
19	Sassuolo	35	7	8	20	-29	-21.3	29
20	Salernitana	34	2	9	23	-47	-39.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	14	3	1	+33	+27.6	45
2	Bologna	18	12	4	2	+21	+9.1	40
3	Roma	18	11	4	3	+18	+12.2	37
4	Milan	17	11	3	3	+17	+10.2	36
5	Juventus	17	10	6	1	+13	+17.8	36
6	Atalanta	16	11	2	3	+23	+13.6	35
7	Fiorentina	17	9	4	4	+14	+9.1	31
8	Lazio	17	9	3	5	+7	+8.6	30
9	Torino	18	7	9	2	+7	+8.3	30
10	Frosinone	17	7	4	6	+2	-3.2	25
11	Cagliari	18	6	7	5	-3	+4.9	25
12	Genoa	17	6	6	5	+2	-1.3	24
13	Napoli	17	6	6	5	-1	+12.3	24
14	Monza	18	6	6	6	-2	-5.3	24
15	Lecce	17	6	6	5	-6	+0.4	24
16	Verona	17	6	5	6	-2	-5.1	23
17	Sassuolo	18	5	5	8	-9	-9.6	20
18	Empoli	18	4	5	9	-9	-6.5	17
19	Udinese	17	1	9	7	-8	-2.0	12
20	Salernitana	17	1	5	11	-19	-14.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	17	14	2	1	+29	+18.0	44
2	Milan	18	10	5	3	+8	+6.3	35
3	Juventus	18	8	6	4	+8	+6.6	30
4	Napoli	17	7	5	5	+10	+8.9	26
5	Lazio	18	8	2	8	+1	-4.0	26
6	Bologna	17	5	9	3	+1	+2.1	24
7	Roma	17	6	5	6	+2	+0.1	23
8	Atalanta	17	6	4	7	+1	-2.0	22
9	Monza	17	5	6	6	-6	-8.3	21
10	Fiorentina	17	5	4	8	-2	-5.8	19
11	Genoa	18	4	7	7	-4	-5.2	19
12	Torino	17	4	5	8	-7	-4.2	17
13	Udinese	17	3	8	6	-11	-8.9	17
14	Empoli	17	4	3	10	-15	-11.1	15
15	Lecce	18	2	7	9	-12	-8.8	13
16	Verona	18	2	5	11	-11	-7.5	11
17	Sassuolo	17	2	3	12	-20	-11.6	9
18	Cagliari	17	1	5	11	-20	-16.0	8
19	Frosinone	18	0	7	11	-22	-10.8	7
20	Salernitana	17	1	4	12	-28	-24.5	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.