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Primeira Liga

Referee: André Narciso

Sp Lisbon

S U S S S

1–0

Full-time

Famalicao

U T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Famalicao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,7

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

4,0

1,5

Scored

2,5

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,19 xG 0,38

63% Possession 37%

10 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 4. · Famalicao 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Guimaraes	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.8	9
2	Boavista	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.4	7
3	Benfica	3	2	0	1	+2	+4.2	6
4	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.3	6
5	Porto	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.8	6
6	Arouca	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.8	5
7	Casa Pia	3	1	1	1	+2	+0.8	4
8	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.9	4
9	Gil Vicente	3	1	0	2	+3	-0.7	3
10	Farense	3	1	0	2	+1	-1.8	3
11	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
12	Estoril	3	1	0	2	+0	+0.9	3
13	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.8	3
14	Estrela	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.5	3
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
16	Vizela	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.0	1
17	Portimonense	3	0	1	2	-8	-3.2	1
18	Chaves	3	0	0	3	-9	-3.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.5	6
2	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.6	4
3	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
4	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+4	-1.0	3
5	Farense	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.3	3
6	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.6	3
7	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+2	+3.0	3
8	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
9	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
10	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
11	Estrela	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.1	3
12	Vizela	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
13	Famalicao	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
14	Sp Braga	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
15	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
16	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
17	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.5	0
18	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Casa Pia	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.9	4
2	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
3	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.5	3
4	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
5	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
6	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
7	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
8	Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.7	3
9	Arouca	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
10	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
11	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.3	1
12	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
13	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
14	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.3	0
15	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.6	0
16	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
17	Vizela	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.9	0
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-7	-4.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.