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Serie A

Referee: M Guida

Lecce

T T T S U

1–3

Full-time

Fiorentina

T T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

1,0

Conceded

2,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,3

This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 24%

22%

25%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

72%

50%

Both score Ø 65%

63%

66%

Average goals

3,5

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

2,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

49% Possession 51%

10 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 5

3 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 18. · Fiorentina 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	32	24	4	4	+35	76
2	Atalanta	33	21	7	5	+50	70
3	Inter	32	20	8	4	+34	68
4	Lazio	32	21	5	6	+33	68
5	Roma	32	16	6	10	+16	54
6	Napoli	33	15	8	10	+9	53
7	Milan	33	15	8	10	+6	53
8	Sassuolo	32	13	7	12	+5	46
9	Verona	32	11	11	10	+1	44
10	Bologna	33	11	10	12	-5	43
11	Cagliari	33	10	11	12	-1	41
12	Parma	33	11	7	15	-2	40
13	Sampdoria	33	11	5	17	-12	38
14	Fiorentina	32	8	12	12	-6	36
15	Udinese	32	9	8	15	-15	35
16	Torino	32	10	4	18	-22	34
17	Genoa	32	7	9	16	-20	30
18	Lecce	32	7	8	17	-31	29
19	Brescia	33	5	6	22	-40	21
20	Spal	32	5	4	23	-35	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	14	2	0	+28	44
2	Lazio	17	12	3	2	+26	39
3	Atalanta	17	11	2	4	+26	35
4	Inter	17	10	5	2	+21	35
5	Verona	16	8	4	4	+5	28
6	Roma	16	8	3	5	+7	27
7	Milan	16	7	5	4	+4	26
8	Napoli	16	7	3	6	+2	24
9	Sassuolo	15	7	2	6	+8	23
10	Sampdoria	17	6	4	7	-1	22
11	Cagliari	16	6	3	7	+3	21
12	Torino	16	6	3	7	-9	21
13	Parma	16	6	2	8	+3	20
14	Udinese	16	5	5	6	-5	20
15	Bologna	17	4	7	6	-5	19
16	Fiorentina	17	3	8	6	-6	17
17	Genoa	16	5	1	10	-8	16
18	Lecce	16	3	5	8	-10	14
19	Brescia	16	2	4	10	-13	10
20	Spal	15	2	3	10	-13	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	16	10	5	1	+24	35
2	Inter	15	10	3	2	+13	33
3	Juventus	16	10	2	4	+7	32
4	Napoli	17	8	5	4	+7	29
5	Lazio	15	9	2	4	+7	29
6	Roma	16	8	3	5	+9	27
7	Milan	17	8	3	6	+2	27
8	Bologna	16	7	3	6	+0	24
9	Sassuolo	17	6	5	6	-3	23
10	Cagliari	17	4	8	5	-4	20
11	Parma	17	5	5	7	-5	20
12	Fiorentina	15	5	4	6	+0	19
13	Verona	16	3	7	6	-4	16
14	Sampdoria	16	5	1	10	-11	16
15	Udinese	16	4	3	9	-10	15
16	Lecce	16	4	3	9	-21	15
17	Genoa	16	2	8	6	-12	14
18	Torino	16	4	1	11	-13	13
19	Brescia	17	3	2	12	-27	11
20	Spal	17	3	1	13	-22	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.