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Serie A
Referee: M Irrati
Roma
S T S U S
0–1
Full-time
Napoli
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Napoli
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
50%
100%
Points per game
1,7
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
2,2
5,0
Scored
1,2
3,7
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+2,3
This season — Serie A · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 75%
70%
80%
Points per game
2,2
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
50%
70%
Both score Ø 55%
40%
70%
Average goals
2,2
3,4
Scored
1,3
2,5
Conceded
0,9
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+1,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%
6 Shots 12
0 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 0
3 Corners 4
3 Offside 0
14 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Roma 5. · Napoli 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Napoli 10 8 2 0 +16 26
2 Milan 11 8 2 1 +13 26
3 Lazio 11 7 3 1 +18 24
4 Atalanta 11 7 3 1 +8 24
5 Roma 10 7 1 2 +4 22
6 Udinese 11 6 3 2 +8 21
7 Inter 11 7 0 4 +5 21
8 Juventus 11 5 4 2 +10 19
9 Torino 11 4 2 5 -3 14
10 Salernitana 11 3 4 4 -3 13
11 Sassuolo 10 3 3 4 +0 12
12 Empoli 11 2 5 4 -6 11
13 Bologna 11 2 4 5 -5 10
14 Fiorentina 11 2 4 5 -5 10
15 Monza 11 3 1 7 -9 10
16 Spezia 11 2 3 6 -11 9
17 Lecce 11 1 5 5 -5 8
18 Verona 10 1 2 7 -10 5
19 Cremonese 10 0 4 6 -12 4
20 Sampdoria 10 0 3 7 -13 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Roma Napoli
Chris Smalling 🟨
22′
39′
ℹ️ Tanguy Ndombélé
VAR: Penalty cancelled
Half-time 0–0
47′
🟨 Hirving Lozano
47′
🟨 Tanguy Ndombélé
Bryan Cristante 🟨
51′
57′
🔁 E. Elmas
↦ T. Ndombélé
A. Belotti 🔁
↦ T. Abraham
64′
Roger Ibañez 🟨
74′
75′
🔁 M. Politano
↦ H. Lozano
75′
🔁 G. Gaetano
↦ P. Zieliński
78′
🟨 Mathías Olivera
79′
🟨 Stanislav Lobotka
80′
V. Osimhen 0–1
M. Politano
M. Viña 🔁
↦ R. Karsdorp
82′
N. Matić 🔁
↦ M. Camara
82′
S. El Shaarawy 🔁
↦ G. Mancini
82′
E. Shomurodov 🔁
↦ L. Spinazzola
85′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Roma

3-5-2
1 Rui Patrício G
23 G. Mancini D
6 C. Smalling D
3 Ibañez D
2 R. Karsdorp M
4 B. Cristante M
7 L. Pellegrini M
20 M. Camara M
37 L. Spinazzola M
22 N. Zaniolo F
9 T. Abraham F
Bench (12)
11 A. Belotti
17 M. Viña
8 N. Matić
92 S. El Shaarawy
14 E. Shomurodov
52 E. Bove
68 B. Tahirovic
62 C. Volpato
63 P. Boer
24 M. Kumbulla
99 M. Svilar
65 F. Tripi

Coach: José Mourinho

Napoli

4-3-3
1 A. Meret G
22 G. Di Lorenzo D
3 Kim Min-Jae D
5 Juan Jesus D
17 M. Olivera D
91 T. Ndombélé M
68 S. Lobotka M
20 P. Zieliński M
11 H. Lozano F
9 V. Osimhen F
77 K. Kvaratskhelia F
Bench (13)
7 E. Elmas
21 M. Politano
70 G. Gaetano
12 D. Marfella
23 A. Zerbin
81 G. Raspadori
16 H. Idasiak
4 D. Demme
18 G. Simeone
59 A. Zanoli
55 L. Østigård
6 Mário Rui
31 K. Zedadka

Coach: L. Spalletti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,89
U
3,52
B ✓
2,41
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,79
U2,5 ✓
2,03
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Irrati · 54 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.