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Serie A

Referee: V Marini

Atalanta

S S S S T

3–1

Full-time

Spezia

S T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 39%

54%

23%

Points per game

1,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

65%

73%

Both score Ø 64%

65%

62%

Average goals

3,6

3,1

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

47% Possession 53%

14 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 5. · Spezia 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	26	19	5	2	+38	62
2	Milan	26	17	5	4	+20	56
3	Juventus	25	15	7	3	+30	52
4	Roma	26	15	5	6	+13	50
5	Atalanta	26	14	7	5	+27	49
6	Napoli	25	15	2	8	+26	47
7	Lazio	26	14	4	8	+5	46
8	Verona	26	10	8	8	+5	38
9	Sassuolo	25	9	9	7	+1	36
10	Sampdoria	26	9	5	12	-3	32
11	Udinese	26	8	8	10	-5	32
12	Bologna	26	7	7	12	-8	28
13	Genoa	26	6	9	11	-11	27
14	Fiorentina	26	6	8	12	-12	26
15	Spezia	26	6	8	12	-14	26
16	Benevento	26	6	8	12	-22	26
17	Cagliari	26	5	7	14	-14	22
18	Torino	24	3	11	10	-10	20
19	Parma	26	2	10	14	-29	16
20	Crotone	27	4	3	20	-37	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	13	11	1	1	+22	34
2	Roma	14	10	3	1	+18	33
3	Juventus	13	10	2	1	+20	32
4	Napoli	13	9	1	3	+22	28
5	Lazio	13	8	2	3	+5	26
6	Atalanta	13	7	3	3	+16	24
7	Milan	13	6	4	3	+6	22
8	Verona	13	6	3	4	+4	21
9	Fiorentina	14	5	5	4	+2	20
10	Bologna	12	5	3	4	+1	18
11	Udinese	13	5	3	5	+0	18
12	Sampdoria	13	5	2	6	+0	17
13	Genoa	13	4	4	5	-1	16
14	Sassuolo	12	3	6	3	+0	15
15	Crotone	13	4	1	8	-8	13
16	Cagliari	13	3	3	7	-7	12
17	Spezia	13	2	5	6	-7	11
18	Benevento	13	2	5	6	-12	11
19	Parma	13	1	5	7	-16	8
20	Torino	11	0	7	4	-5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	13	11	1	1	+14	34
2	Inter	13	8	4	1	+16	28
3	Atalanta	13	7	4	2	+11	25
4	Sassuolo	13	6	3	4	+1	21
5	Juventus	12	5	5	2	+10	20
6	Lazio	13	6	2	5	+0	20
7	Napoli	12	6	1	5	+4	19
8	Verona	13	4	5	4	+1	17
9	Roma	12	5	2	5	-5	17
10	Sampdoria	13	4	3	6	-3	15
11	Spezia	13	4	3	6	-7	15
12	Benevento	13	4	3	6	-10	15
13	Udinese	13	3	5	5	-5	14
14	Torino	13	3	4	6	-5	13
15	Genoa	13	2	5	6	-10	11
16	Cagliari	13	2	4	7	-7	10
17	Bologna	14	2	4	8	-9	10
18	Parma	13	1	5	7	-13	8
19	Fiorentina	12	1	3	8	-14	6
20	Crotone	14	0	2	12	-29	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.