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Serie A
Referee: M Piccinini
Crotone
S U T S T
1–3
Full-time
Roma
S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crotone Roma
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
4,0
3,5
Scored
1,5
2,2
Conceded
2,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,8
This season — Serie A · 15/15 matches
Win Ø 37%
13%
60%
Points per game
0,6
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
60%
73%
Both score Ø 57%
60%
53%
Average goals
3,3
3,7
Scored
1,0
2,1
Conceded
2,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

52% Possession 48%
12 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 4
0 Offside 1
15 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Crotone 20. · Roma 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Milan 15 11 4 0 +18 37
2 Inter 15 11 3 1 +21 36
3 Roma 15 9 3 3 +9 30
4 Napoli 14 9 1 4 +18 28
5 Juventus 14 7 6 1 +15 27
6 Sassuolo 15 7 5 3 +5 26
7 Atalanta 14 7 4 3 +12 25
8 Verona 15 6 5 4 +5 23
9 Lazio 15 6 4 5 -1 22
10 Benevento 16 6 3 7 -7 21
11 Sampdoria 15 5 2 8 -2 17
12 Bologna 15 4 4 7 -6 16
13 Fiorentina 15 3 6 6 -5 15
14 Udinese 14 4 3 7 -6 15
15 Cagliari 16 3 5 8 -10 14
16 Parma 15 2 6 7 -15 12
17 Torino 15 2 5 8 -7 11
18 Spezia 15 2 5 8 -11 11
19 Genoa 15 2 5 8 -13 11
20 Crotone 15 2 3 10 -20 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Crotone Roma
8′
Borja Mayoral 0–1
H. Mkhitaryan
22′
🟨 Bruno Peres
29′
Borja Mayoral 0–2
B. Cristante
Vladimir Golemić 🟨
33′
35′
H. Mkhitaryan 0–3
Lisandro Magallán 🟨
41′
Half-time 0–3
M. Vulić 🔁
↦ Pedro Pereira
46′
57′
🟨 Roger Ibañez
E. Rivière 🔁
↦ Eduardo Henrique
58′
63′
🔁 L. Pellegrini
↦ H. Mkhitaryan
64′
🔁 M. Kumbulla
↦ Ibañez
1–3 V. Golemić
Junior Messias
71′
80′
🔁 J. Veretout
↦ B. Cristante
85′
🔁 E. Džeko
↦ Borja Mayoral
88′
🟨 Lorenzo Pellegrini
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Crotone

3-5-2
1 A. Cordaz G
6 L. Magallán D
5 V. Golemić D
32 Pedro Pereira M
3 G. Cuomo D
17 S. Molina M
95 Eduardo Henrique M
69 A. Reca M
21 N. Zanellato M
25 S. Nwankwo F
30 Junior Messias F
Bench (12)
77 M. Vulić
97 E. Rivière
28 L. Siligardi
13 S. Luperto
14 G. Crociata
26 K. Djidji
33 A. Rispoli
16 M. Festa
44 J. Petriccione
20 L. Rojas
34 L. Marrone
11 D. Drăguş

Coach: G. Stroppa

Roma

3-4-2-1
13 Pau López G
6 C. Smalling D
33 Bruno Peres M
2 R. Karsdorp M
23 G. Mancini D
3 Ibañez D
77 H. Mkhitaryan F
4 B. Cristante M
14 Gonzalo Villar M
21 Borja Mayoral F
31 Carles Pérez F
Bench (10)
7 L. Pellegrini
24 M. Kumbulla
17 J. Veretout
9 E. Džeko
64 S. Podgoreanu
5 Juan Jesus
42 A. Diawara
12 S. Farelli
63 P. Boer
57 R. Providence

Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
7,10
U
4,99
B ✓
1,41
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,50
U2,5
2,56
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Piccinini · 104 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.