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Serie A

Referee: F Maresca

Juventus

S S U S S

1–0

Full-time

Milan

S U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Juventus Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

This season — Serie A · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 59%

82%

36%

Points per game

2,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

55%

Both score Ø 60%

64%

55%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

11 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 3

7 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 5

4 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Juventus 2. · Milan 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	12	10	1	1	+14	31
2	Juventus	11	9	2	0	+10	29
3	Lazio	12	7	3	2	+15	24
4	Cagliari	12	7	3	2	+11	24
5	Atalanta	12	6	4	2	+12	22
6	Roma	12	6	4	2	+6	22
7	Napoli	12	5	4	3	+6	19
8	Parma	12	5	2	5	+3	17
9	Fiorentina	12	4	4	4	-1	16
10	Verona	12	4	3	5	-1	15
11	Torino	12	4	2	6	-2	14
12	Udinese	12	4	2	6	-10	14
13	Sassuolo	11	4	1	6	+0	13
14	Milan	11	4	1	6	-4	13
15	Bologna	12	3	3	6	-4	12
16	Lecce	12	2	4	6	-10	10
17	Genoa	12	2	3	7	-12	9
18	Sampdoria	12	2	3	7	-12	9
19	Spal	12	2	2	8	-11	8
20	Brescia	11	2	1	8	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	5	5	0	0	+6	15
2	Lazio	6	4	2	0	+12	14
3	Cagliari	7	4	1	2	+6	13
4	Inter	6	4	1	1	+6	13
5	Parma	7	4	0	3	+4	12
6	Napoli	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Roma	6	3	2	1	+2	11
8	Udinese	7	3	1	3	-4	10
9	Sassuolo	6	3	0	3	+3	9
10	Verona	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Fiorentina	6	2	2	2	+0	8
12	Torino	6	2	2	2	+0	8
13	Atalanta	5	2	1	2	+5	7
14	Bologna	5	2	1	2	+0	7
15	Genoa	6	2	1	3	-1	7
16	Spal	6	2	1	3	-2	7
17	Milan	6	2	1	3	-3	7
18	Sampdoria	6	1	3	2	-4	6
19	Lecce	5	0	2	3	-5	2
20	Brescia	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	6	6	0	0	+8	18
2	Atalanta	7	4	3	0	+7	15
3	Juventus	6	4	2	0	+4	14
4	Cagliari	5	3	2	0	+5	11
5	Roma	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	Lazio	6	3	1	2	+3	10
7	Napoli	6	2	2	2	+2	8
8	Fiorentina	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Lecce	7	2	2	3	-5	8
10	Verona	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Milan	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Torino	6	2	0	4	-2	6
13	Brescia	6	2	0	4	-3	6
14	Parma	5	1	2	2	-1	5
15	Bologna	7	1	2	4	-4	5
16	Sassuolo	5	1	1	3	-3	4
17	Udinese	5	1	1	3	-6	4
18	Sampdoria	6	1	0	5	-8	3
19	Genoa	6	0	2	4	-11	2
20	Spal	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.